《保险研究》20250901-《老年家庭消费储蓄行为研究新进展》（易行健、李青塬、吴卫星、杨碧云）

［摘   要］本文系统回顾了老年家庭消费与储蓄行为的理论与实证研究进展，聚焦生命周期—持久收入假说、预防性储蓄理论和新家庭经济学框架，深入剖析健康风险、遗赠动机、社会保障体系、住房财富及文化因素的驱动机制与异质性表现。研究发现，发达国家老年家庭退休后消费显著下降，财富减少慢于预期，受健康不确定性与遗赠动机主导；中国老年家庭消费下降平缓，高储蓄率源于文化传统、代际支持及社会保障不足。方法上，简约式估计、结构估计及高频交易数据与行政数据的应用显著提升了因果识别与异质性分析能力。通过整合微观实证、宏观均衡分析及政策模拟，本文揭示了老年家庭消费储蓄行为的复杂性及其对宏观经济的影响，为优化养老保险、医疗保障、住房流动性及数字化赋能等政策提供了理论依据与实证支持。展望未来，结合多维数据与跨国比较，深化中国情境下的理论模型与因果识别，将进一步推动老龄化经济研究与政策设计。

［关键词］老年家庭；消费储蓄行为；生命周期—持久收入假说；社会保障；养老金融

［基金项目］本研究得到2022年国家自然科学基金面上项目“新发展格局背景下贫富差距对居民消费的影响研究：机制、效应与政策”(72273036)、2022年度国家社科基金项目“新发展格局背景下全面促进中国居民消费的理论、机制与政策研究”(22VRC002)、2023年度国家社科基金项目“公共服务数字化促进居民消费的影响机制、效应与对策研究”(23BJL127)、2023年国家社会科学基金重大项目“新发展格局下居民家庭财富分布研究”(23&ZD045)的资助。

［作者简介］易行健，教授、广东金融学院校长、数字经济和金融强国建设研究院院长和数字金融与高质量发展研究基地主任、广东外语外贸大学金融学院博士生导师；李青塬（通讯作者），广东外语外贸大学金融学院博士研究生；吴卫星，教授、首都经济贸易大学校长；杨碧云，广东外语外贸大学金融学院金融开放与资产管理研究中心、广州华南财富管理中心研究基地教授，博士生导师。

New Advances in Research on the Consumption and Saving Behavior of Elderly Households

YI Xing-jian，LI Qing-yuan，WU Wei-xing，YANG Bi-yun

Abstract：This paper systematically reviews the theoretical and empirical advancements in the consumption and saving behaviors of elderly households，focusing on the life-cycle permanent income hypothesis，precautionary saving theory，and new household economics framework.It provides an in-depth analysis of the driving mechanisms and heterogeneous effects of health risks，bequest motives，social security systems，housing wealth，and cultural factors.The findings indicate that in developed countries，elderly households experience a significant decline in consumption post-retirement，with wealth depletion slower than anticipated，primarily driven by health uncertainties and bequest motives.In contrast，Chinese elderly households exhibit a more gradual consumption decline，with high saving rates attributed to cultural traditions，intergenerational support，and inadequate social security.Methodologically，the application of reduced-form and structural estimation，alongside high-frequency transaction data and administrative data，has significantly enhanced causal identification and heterogeneity analysis.By integrating micro-level empirical evidences，macro-equilibrium analysis，and policy simulations，this study elucidates the complexity of elderly consumption and saving behaviors and its macroeconomic implications，offering theoretical and empirical support for optimizing pension systems，healthcare policies，housing liquidity，and digital empowerment.Looking forward，leveraging multidimensional data and cross-country comparisons to refine theoretical models and causal inference within the Chinese context will further advance research and policy design in the economics of aging.

Key words：elderly households;consumption and saving behavior;life-cycle permanent income hypothesis;social security;financial planning for aging