《保险研究》20250902-《基于机器学习方法的即时冲击事件影响国家风险研究》（王稳、周娅乐）

［摘   要］在全球国别风险环境日趋复杂的背景下，即时冲击事件对国家风险的影响已成为国家风险管理理论和实践中一个极具挑战的重大课题。本文基于机器学习方法建立国家风险月度评级模型，结合GDELT数据库中合作与冲突事件大数据，分析即时冲击事件对国家风险的影响及其机制，研究国际关系网络在国家风险变化过程中的作用。实证结果表明，机器学习能够捕捉即时冲击事件对特定国别国家风险的即时影响；即时冲击事件对国家风险有显著影响，国际金融系统稳定性、地缘政治稳定性、经济政策不确定性及国际关系网络在此过程中具有显著的调节作用；不同类型国家在遭受冲击时受到的影响不同，非高收入国家、发展中国家和未加入G20国际组织的国家更可能受到冲击事件的影响。本研究有助于深化对国家风险动态演化规律的认识，为有效应对突发危机，提升国别风险管理韧性，推动我国开放经济高质量发展提供决策参考。

［关键词］即时冲击事件；国际关系网络；国家风险评估

［基金项目］本文获对外经济贸易大学研究生科研创新基金资助。

［作者简介］王稳，对外经济贸易大学保险学院教授、博士生导师；周娅乐（通讯作者），对外经济贸易大学保险学院博士研究生。

A Study on the Impacts of Immediate Shock Events on Country Risks Based on the Machine Learning Method

WANG Wen，ZHOU Ya-le

Abstract：Against the backdrop of an increasingly complex global country risk landscape，the impact of immediate shock events on country risks has become a critical and challenging topic in both theoretical and practical dimensions of country risk management.This paper establishes a monthly rating model for country risks based on machine learning methods，and in combination with the big data on cooperation and conflict events from GDELT，we systematically analyze the impacts of immediate shocks events on country risks and the functioning mechanisms and investigate the role of international relations networks in this process.Empirical results demonstrate that machine learning can effectively capture the immediate impact of immediate shock events on the country-specific risks;immediate shocks events have a significant effect on country risk，with international financial system stability，geopolitical stability，economic policy uncertainty，and international relations networks all exhibiting notable moderating effects;countries exhibit varying resilience to shocks，with non-high-income economies，developing nations，and non-G20 member countries being particularly vulnerable.This study not only enhances the understanding of the dynamic evolution of country risks but also provides decision-making references for effectively responding to abrupt crises，strengthening the resilience of country risk management，and promoting the high-quality development of China’s open economy.

Key words：immediate shock events;international relations network;country risk assessment