《保险研究》20250903-《锚定期货的玉米收入保险产品优化设计》（李正强、余方平）

［摘   要］收入保险产品是保障粮农收入的重要工具。本文基于美国RP(Revenue Protection)计划，进行对标分析，研究我国玉米收入保险优化路径。首先通过解构美国玉米RP计划中期货的核心功能，结合我国东北地区实践，设计“目标价格和收获价格以期货为基准”(FRI)、“目标价格以期货与现货最大值、收获价格以期货与现货最小值为基准”(MaxFSRI)两款收入保险产品。之后构建期货再保以分散额外的价格风险。最后建立保险费和再保费定价模型，利用Copula和蒙特卡洛模拟测算技术，以2024年辽宁铁岭市玉米收入保险为例展开案例分析。结果表明：期货基准机制具有双重优势，一是通过基差调节实现保险保障水平隐性提升5%~10%，二是依托锚定的期货合约周期特征扩展售粮权益保障。FRI费率仅为现行产品费率的50%，MaxFSRI费率与RP计划10%的水平一致，且两者期货再保成本占比约20%，通过期货工具优化现有玉米收入保险产品具备可行性。研究成果为优化我国政策性农作物收入保险提供理论支撑与实践范式。

［关键词］玉米收入保险；RP计划；期货；基差；Copula函数

［基金项目］国家自然科学基金面上项目(72072018)和科技部国家重点研发计划课题(2023YFC3305105)。

［作者简介］李正强，经济学博士，对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院研究员、博士生导师，研究方向：金融市场与风险管理；余方平（通讯作者），工学博士，大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院教授、博士生导师，研究方向：政策性保险、大宗商品价格风险管理。

Improved Design of Corn Revenue Insurance for Anchor Futures

LI Zheng-qiang，YU Fang-ping

Abstract：Revenue insurance products is a pivotal measure to safeguard grain farmers’ income.This paper conducts a systematic investigation into the optimization path for China’s corn revenue insurance (SRI) through a comparative analysis of the U.S.Revenue Protection (RP) program.By deconstructing the core functions of futures in the U.S.corn RP and integrating practical insights from Northeast China，we design two enhanced revenue insurance products： Futures-based Revenue Insurance (FRI) with “target and harvest prices benchmarked against futures” and Max-Min Futures-Spot Revenue Insurance (MaxFSRI) using “maximum value of futures price and spot price for target price and minimum value of futures price and spot price for harvest price”.A futures-based reinsurance structure is constructed to mitigate extra price risks，accompanied by premium and reinsurance pricing models.Utilizing Copula functions and Monte Carlo simulation techniques，we conduct an empirical analysis using 2024 corn revenue insurance data from Tieling City，Liaoning Province.The findings reveal that the futures benchmarking mechanism demonstrates dual advantages： 1) achieving 5%-10% implicit coverage enhancement through basis adjustment，and 2) extending sales rights protection via anchored futures contract cycles.The FRI premium rate is only 50% of the current SRI rate，while the MaxFSRI rate aligns with the RP’s 10% level.Additionally，futures reinsurance costs account for about 20% for both.Thus，using futures to optimize existing corn revenue insurance products presents feasibility.This research provides theoretical foundations and practical paradigms for optimizing China’s policy-oriented agricultural revenue insurance system.

Key words：corn revenue insurance;RP program;futures;basis;Copula function