《保险研究》20250904-《长期护理保险对老年人政府养老责任认知的影响——基于四期CLASS数据的分析》（马琦峰、宁晶、陈鹤）

［摘   要］随着人口老龄化程度持续加深，为应对不断增长的长期照护需求，我国政府逐步开展了一系列长期护理保险试点工作。本文基于2014~2020年中国老年社会追踪调查(CLASS)数据，采用长护险试点作为准自然实验，运用倾向值匹配、多期双重差分法，系统评估长护险对老年人政府养老责任认知的影响。研究发现，长护险显著增强了老年人认为政府应当承担全部或部分养老责任的倾向。异质性分析显示，该政策效应在身体健康状况较好、社会经济条件较优的老年群体中更为突出。机制分析进一步表明，降低子女经济支持与家务支持是长护险影响老年人政府养老责任认知的重要作用路径。本文从福利态度与照护文化的视角出发，为全面评估长护险政策效果提供了新的经验证据。

［关键词］长期护理保险；政府养老责任认知；老年人；倾向值匹配-双重差分法

［基金项目］国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“长期照护保障制度研究”(24FGLB084)、国家自然科学基金青年项目“人工智能政策叙事与公众反馈效应：基于地方政府的实证研究”(72304066)。

［作者简介］马琦峰，中国人民大学老年学研究所博士研究生；宁晶，对外经济贸易大学政府管理学院副教授；陈鹤（通讯作者），中国人民大学公共管理学院副教授。

The Impact of Long-Term Care Insurance on Elderly People’ s Perception of Government Responsibility for Old Age Care：An Empirical Analysis Based on Four Waves of CLASS Data

MA Qi-feng，NING Jing，CHEN He

Abstract：With the persistent deepening of population aging，the Chinese government has launched a series of long-term care insurance (LTCI) pilot programs to address the growing demands for care services.Drawing on data from the China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS) from 2014 to 2020 and treating the long-term care insurance pilot as a quasi-natural experiment，this study employs the methods of Propensity Score Matching and staggered Difference-in-Differences (PSM-DID) approach to examine the impact of LTCI on elderly people’s perceptions of governmental responsibility for old age care.The results show that LTCI significantly enhances their belief that the government should bear full or partial responsibility for elderly support.Heterogeneity analysis indicates that this effect is more evident among individuals with better physical health and higher socioeconomic status.Mechanism analysis further reveals that the decline in children’s financial and household support serves as an important pathway through which LTCI shapes older adults’ cognition of government responsibility.This study provides new empirical evidences from the perspective of welfare attitudes and care culture for comprehensively evaluating the policy effects of LTCI pilot programs.

Key words：long-term care insurance;perception of government responsibility for old age care;elderly people;PSM-DID