《保险研究》20221201-《中国人身险行业的增长动力研究——基于供需双侧的视角》（杨斐滟、何薇、陈滔）

［摘   要］中国人身险行业过去实现高增长的动力是什么？为回答这一问题,本文构建包含需求侧和供给侧两方面因素的面板向量自回归模型,重点考察经济发展水平、风险水平、风险认知和销售能力对我国人身保险消费的影响。结果表明,经济发展水平、风险水平和风险认知对人身保险消费具有长期促进作用,而销售能力对人身保险消费具有短期拉动作用。经过方差预测分解可知，我国人身保险消费具有明显的“供给侧主导”特征,也即我国的人身保险消费主要由保险公司的销售能力拉动。但通过分地区异质性分析发现,我国不同区域间的人身保险消费增长呈现不同的特点，经济欠发达地区和经济较发达地区的人身保险消费的“供给侧主导”特征更为明显,而经济发达地区的人身保险消费受需求侧因素的影响更大。进一步分析还发现,尽管我国人身险行业增长具有“供给侧主导”特征,但各险种之间存在显著差别，其中寿险消费受供给侧影响程度更大,而健康险和意外险具有明显的“需求侧主导”特征。本文的研究结果有助于理解我国人身险行业过去的增长逻辑，了解目前面临的增长瓶颈,为行业实现高质量发展提供重要借鉴。

［关键词］人身险；保险消费；供给侧；需求侧；供给侧主导；增长动力

［作者简介］杨斐滟，西南财经大学金融学院讲师、硕士生导师；何薇（通讯作者），西南财经大学金融学院博士研究生；陈滔，西南财经大学金融学院教授、博士生导师。

A Research on the Growth Drivers of China′s Life Insurance Industry—Based on Supply-demand Perspectives

YANG Fei-yan,HE Wei,CHEN Tao

Abstract：Abstract:What are the reasons for the high growth of China′s life insurance industry in the past? In order to answer this question,this paper constructs a panel vector autoregression model including demand-side and supply-side factors,focusing on the impacts of economic development level,risk level,risk perception and sales ability on personal insurance consumption.The results show that economic development level,risk level and risk perception have long-term promoting effects on personal insurance consumption.And sales capability has a short-term driving effect on life insurance consumption.Through variance prediction decomposition,it can be seen that life insurance consumption is obviously “supply-side dominated”,in other words,China′s life insurance consumption is mainly driven by the sales capability of insurance companies.In addition,through the analysis of regional heterogeneity,we can see that the growth of life insurance consumption in different regions presents different characteristics.The “supply-side dominance” of life insurance consumption is more obvious in less developed arsae than more developed areas,while the consumption of life insurance in developed areas is more affected by demand-side factors.Further analysis of this paper also finds that although the growth of Chinese life insurance industry is characterized by “supply-side dominance”,there are significant differences among different life insurance products,among which health insurance and accident insurance are obviously “demand-side dominated”.In contrast,life insurance consumption is more affected by the supply side.The research results of this paper are helpful to deeply understand the growth logic of China′s life insurance industry in the past,gain an insight on the current growth bottleneck,and provide important reference for China′s life insurance industry to achieve high-quality development.

Key words：Key words:life insurance；insurance consumption；supply-side；demand-side； driving force