《保险研究》20221205-《生猪利润保险在生猪市场调控中的作用研究——以四川省为例》（李亚茹、张海浪）

［摘   要］非洲猪瘟发生后，在一系列稳定生猪市场供应的政策支持下，我国生猪生产逐步恢复到常年水平，但长期困扰生猪产业发展的“猪周期”问题尚未破解。政府部门为破解“猪周期”问题，自2007年起便陆续出台多种生猪市场调控政策，但现行生猪市场调控存在补贴交叉重叠、政策调控时机不清晰、政策稳定性不足和市场化调控政策有限等问题。通过比较生猪利润保险与现行生猪市场调控政策的运作机制，本文发现，生猪利润保险是一种市场化的生猪生产逆周期调控补贴政策，作为生猪价格指数保险与饲料成本保险的替代，能够显著降低保险公司的经营费用，且与政府猪肉储备调节政策相比，具有不破坏生猪市场供求平衡、财政资金使用规模较小及效率较高的优点，能够化解现行生猪市场调控的多种困境。进一步地,本文从政府、保险公司、生猪养殖户与生猪市场四个方面，阐述并模拟计算生猪利润保险在生猪市场调控中的作用，认为生猪利润保险在生猪市场调控中具有可减轻政府的财政负担、扩大保险公司业务规模、增加养殖户收益、稳定生猪市场供应的作用。

［关键词］生猪利润保险；生猪市场调控；猪周期；生猪生产逆周期调控补贴政策

［基金项目］本文是国家社科基金青年项目(20CJY068)、四川省软科学项目(2020JDR0202)、四川省社科规划项目(SC20C051)、西南石油大学人文社科专项(2021RW033)、四川省保险学会项目(2022SCBX18)的阶段性成果。

［作者简介］李亚茹，西南石油大学经济管理学院副教授,研究方向：农业保险；张海浪，四川大学马克思主义学院讲师，研究方向：中国经济理论与政策。

A Research on the Role of Hog Margin Insurance in the Regulation of Hog Market—Taking Sichuan Province as an Example

LI Ya-ru,ZHANG Hai-lang

Abstract：Abstract:After the occurrence of African swine fever,and with the support of a series of policies to stabilize the supply of hog market,hog production in China has gradually returned to the perennial level,but the “hog cycle” problem that has long plagued the development of the hog industry has not been solved.In order to solve the “hog cycle” problem,the Chinese government has introduced a variety of hog market regulation policies since 2007,but the current hog market regulation still faces problems such as overlapping subsidies,unclear policy regulation timing,policy instability and limited market-oriented regulation policies.By comparing the operating mechanism of the hog margin insurance and the current hog market regulation policies,it is found that the hog margin insurance is a market-oriented subsidy policy for the countercyclical regulation of hog production.As a substitute for the hog price index insurance and the feed cost insurance,it can significantly reduce the operating expenses of insurance companies,and compared with the government pork reserve regulation policy,it has the advantages of not damaging the balance between supply and demand in the hog market,smaller scale and higher efficiency in the use of fiscal funds,and can solve many difficulties in the current regulation of hog market.Based on this,this paper theoretically expounds and empirically simulates the role of hog margin insurance in hog market regulation from four aspects:the government,insurance companies,hog farmers and hog market.It is concluded that hog margin insurance can reduce the fiscal burden of the government,expand the business scale of insurance companies,increase the income of farmers and stabilize the supply of hog market.

Key words：Key words:hog margin insurance;hog market regulation;hog cycle;subsidy policy for countercyclical regulation of hog production