《保险研究》20221202-《非理性保险消费行为对中国保险市场的影响》（郭振华、朱少杰）

［摘   要］在面对风险和保险的时候，消费者往往表现出诸多违背(基于理性人假设的)传统保险需求理论的行为，这些（基于人性的）偏离传统保险需求理论的非理性保险消费行为必然会对保险供给进而对保险市场形成巨大影响。本文研究了非理性保险消费行为对中国保险市场的影响，研究发现，鉴于典型的承保小概率大损失风险的短期保障性保险和寿险、护理险、养老年金等长期人身险的需求都相当疲弱，保险业在产品设计、营销模式等方面做了诸多针对性改进或变革，进而使我国保险市场呈现如下特征，一是车险成为财险业主要险种，二是寿险业产品结构总体以储蓄型为主，三是真正的养老年金市场尚未起步，四是长险销售费用高暗含退保引发的声誉风险。鉴于市场化的保险供给对非理性保险消费行为的矫正能力和矫正效果有限，社会很难通过商业保险交易完全解决小概率大损失风险的损失外部化问题和未来长寿时代的社会养老问题，因此，发挥保险功能以解决社会问题往往需要政府通过税收优惠、政企合作、强制保险等支持性政策不断助力。

［关键词］行为经济学；非理性保险消费；保险供给；保险市场

［作者简介］郭振华，上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院教授、保险系主任；朱少杰，上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院保险系讲师。

The Impact of Irrational Insurance Consumption Behaviors on China′s Insurance Market

GUO Zhen-hua,ZHU Shao-jie

Abstract：When faced with risks and insurance options,consumers often exhibit many phenomena that go against the traditional insurance demand theory based on the rational human assumption.These irrational insurance consumption behaviors based on human nature that deviate from the traditional insurance demand theory will certainly have a great impact on the insurance supply and thus on the insurance market.This paper studies the impact of irrational insurance consumption behavior on China′s insurance market.It finds that,given the weak demand for both short-term protection insurance,which typically covers the risk of small probability but large losses,and long-term personal insurance such as life insurance,long-term care insurance and old-age pension,the insurance industry has made many targeted improvements or changes in insurance product design and marketing models,which have led to the following characteristics of China′s current insurance market:first,auto insurance has become the main type in the property and casualty insurance industry;second,the product structure of the life insurance industry is mainly savings-based;third,the real pension insurance market has not yet started;and fourth,the high sales cost of long term insurance implies the reputation risk caused by surrender.Given the limited ability and corrective effect of market-based insurance supply on irrational insurance consumption behaviors,it is difficult for a society to completely solve the loss externalization problem of small probability but large loss risks and the social pension problem in the future longevity era through commercial insurance transactions.Therefore,to mobilize the function of insurance to solve some social problems,tax incentives,government-enterprise cooperation,and compulsory insurance are indispensable.

Key words：behavioral economics;irrational insurance consumption;insurance supply;insurance market