《保险研究》20221204-《专项转移支付对地方政府农业支出的激励效应——以农业保险为例》（何小伟、曹杨、刘怡鑫）

［摘   要］财政支农是保障我国粮食安全的重要手段，也是中央和地方政府的共同责任。为调动地方的积极性，1994年“分税制”改革后中央设立了较大规模的农林水事务专项转移支付，并要求地方政府在共同事权项目中进行配套补贴。中央专项转移支付是否会激励地方政府的农业支出行为？具体的激励机制是什么？对区域均衡发展又有何影响？本文结合我国农业保险保费补贴的政策情境,构建了中央农业保险专项转移支付与地方政府保费补贴行为之间的“激励—响应”模型，在此基础上利用2008~2017年我国各省农险保费补贴的数据,实证检验了中央农业保险专项转移支付对各省农险保费补贴的激励效应，并探讨了这种激励效应的时间趋势及后果。研究发现：从全国范围来看，中央农业保险专项转移支付显著激励了地方政府对农业保险（包括种植业、养殖业）保费的补贴支出，对养殖业保险的激励效应要比种植业保险更为显著，对中西部地区的激励效应要强于东部地区；在现行的比例补贴方式下，地方对农业保险保费的实际补贴水平低于其最优补贴规模；从时间趋势来看，中央农业保险专项转移支付对中西部地区的激励效应出现了“先升后降”的趋势，而对东部地区的激励效应则一直比较平稳；在现行的地方先行补贴、中央随后补贴的政策下，中央农业保险专项转移支付会助推各省农业保险发展水平的不均衡性。论文的结论对完善我国农业保险专项转移支付政策以及推进我国专项转移支付制度改革具有启示意义。

［关键词］农业保险；专项转移支付；地方政府；配套补贴；激励效应

［基金项目］教育部人文社科基金规划项目“费率市场化、监管约束与保险公司的风险承担研究”(21YJA790020)

［作者简介］何小伟，对外经济贸易大学保险学院副教授；曹杨(通讯作者)，对外经济贸易大学保险学院助理教授；刘怡鑫，对外经济贸易大学保险学院硕士研究生。

Incentivizing Effect of Special Transfer Payment on Local Government Agricultural Expenditure—Taking Agricultural Insurance as an Example

HE Xiao-wei,CAO Yang,LIU Yi-xin

Abstract：Fiscal support for agriculture is an important means to ensure China′s food security,and it is the joint responsibility of the central and local governments.In order to mobilize the enthusiasm of local governments,after the “Tax Sharing System” reform in 1994,the central government established sizable special transfer payments for agriculture,forestry and water affairs,and required local governments to deploy supporting subsidies to related areas.Will the central special transfer payment stimulate the agricultural expenditure behavior of local governments? What is the specific incentivizing mechanism? What is the impact on regional balanced development? Based on the policy situation of agricultural insurance premium subsidies in China,this paper constructs an “incentive-response” model between the central special transfer payment and the premium subsidies provided by local governments.On this basis,and using the data of agricultural insurance premium subsidies in various provinces in China from 2008 to 2017,this paper empirically tests the incentivizing effect of central special transfer payment on agricultural insurance premium subsidies in various provinces,and the time trend and consequences of this effect.The study finds that:nationwide,the central special transfer payments significantly encourage the local government to subsidize the premium of agricultural insurance (including planting and breeding);the incentivizing effect is more significant for the breeding industry than the planting industry;the incentivizing effect on the central and western regions is stronger than the eastern region;under the current proportional subsidy mode,the actual subsidy level on local agricultural insurance premiums is lower than its optimal subsidy scale;from the perspective of time trend,the incentivizing effect of central special transfer payments on the central and western regions has shown a trend of “rising first and then falling”,while the effect on the eastern region has been relatively stable;under the current policy of local subsidy first,then central subsidy,the central special transfer payments aggravate the imbalanced development of agricultural insurance across provinces.The conclusions of this paper offer some insights on perfecting the special transfer payment policy for agricultural insurance,and on further reform on the special transfer payment system in China.

Key words：agricultural insurance;special transfer payment;local government;supporting subsidies;incentivizing effect