《保险研究》20221008-《基于微观模拟的城镇职工基本养老保险全国统筹再分配效应研究》（王晓军、曾宇哲、郑晓彤）

［摘   要］2022年基本养老保险基金实行全国统筹,由中央调剂省际余缺承担养老金给付责任,不同地区参保者将在同一资金池缴纳保费和领取养老金。由于我国省区间的工资收入和养老保险制度内抚养负担差距较大,一般认为发达省份将为全国统筹做出额外的经济贡献。然而若从参保队列终身收支的视角看,发达地区的人均寿命更长,养老金终生领取时期更长,养老金福利更高。那么,在综合考虑收入差距、寿命差距、性别差距等因素后,全国统筹的收入再分配效应如何？本文从参保人终身收支的视角,基于中国家庭收入调查项目(CHIP)2018年的数据,采用微观模拟法,对不同类型人群的终身收入和预期寿命进行模拟,使用加权洛伦兹曲线和基尼系数评估基本养老保险的再分配方向和水平。研究发现:工资差异在再分配中的效应较低,总体再分配方向为男性向女性转移,短寿群体向长寿群体转移；养老保险基金的全国统筹加大了再分配力度,终身视角下预期寿命更长的省份仍是制度的受益者。

［关键词］职工基本养老保险；再分配；微观模拟；预期寿命

［基金项目］本文受到国家社科基金重点项目(20AZD075)、教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(20JZD023)的支持。

［作者简介］王晓军,中国人民大学应用统计科学研究中心、中国人民大学统计学院教授；曾宇哲(通讯作者),中国人民大学统计学院博士研究生；郑晓彤,中国农业银行总行运营管理部。

A Research on the Redistribution Effect of Basic Pension for Urban Workers’ National Pooling Based on Micro-simulation

WANG Xiao-jun,ZENG Yu-zhe,ZHENG Xiao-tong

Abstract：In 2022,the basic pension insurance fund will be pooled across the country.The goal is for insured persons in different regions to pay premiums to and receive pensions from the same pool of funds.Due to the large differences of wage income and dependency burden across provinces,it is generally believed that developed provinces will make additional contributions in the national pooling However,from the perspective of the lifetime income and expenditure,the average life expectancy in developed regions is longer with a longer lifetime pension payout period,therefore their pension benefits are higher.Then,after taking factors such as income,longevity,gender,etc.into account,what is the income redistribution effect of the national pooling? Based on the China Household Income Survey Project (CHIP) in 2018,this paper adopts the micro-simulation method to simulate the lifetime income and life expectancy of different groups of people,and uses the weighted Lorenz curve and the Gini coefficient to evaluate the direction and level of redistribution of the basic pension program.The study finds that:the overall redistribution direction is  from， male to female,short-lived groups to long-lived groups,and the effect of wage differences in redistribution is low;the national pooling of pension insurance funds has enhanced the redistribution effect,and provinces with longer life expectancies remain the beneficiaries of the system.

Key words：basic pension system;redistribution;micro-simulation;life expectancy