《保险研究》20220902-《国外行为保险经济学研究脉络梳理和简评》（郭振华、朱少杰、倪红霞）

［摘   要］在认知心理学和行为经济学中与风险判断和风险决策相关的研究成果的支持下，行为保险经济学相关研究逐渐兴盛。本文从研究起源、心理学研究基础、保险需求异象及其解释、投保决策模型的行为学改进、保险供给异象及其解释五方面，梳理了国外行为保险经济学研究的发展脉络，发现现有研究主要存在两方面不足:一是现有的行为投保决策模型要么形式优美但解释力欠佳，还存在结论不稳定问题，要么解释力较佳但不像经济学模型更像心理学模型，存在决策因素和决策目标过多、无法解释群体或社会保险需求规律等问题；二是现有研究主要针对发达国家的保险市场，对中国等发展中国家保险市场异象的研究相对较少。本文提出行为保险经济学未来发展的两个方向:一是研究群体的风险判断偏差分布规律，并通过寻找核心变量等方法建立简洁有效的行为投保决策模型，力求稳定解释群体或社会保险需求规律；二是加强针对中国等发展中国家特有的保险市场异象的研究，尤其需要对中国保险市场上常见的“冒险经营”“过度营销”等供给异象开展研究。

［关键词］行为经济学；保险需求异象；保险供给异象；风险判断；投保决策

［作者简介］郭振华，上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院教授、保险系主任；朱少杰，上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院保险系讲师；倪红霞，上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院保险系讲师。

A Brief Review and Comment on Behavioral Insurance Economics abroad

GUO Zhen-hua,ZHU Shao-jie,Ni Hong-xia

Abstract：With the support of the research results related to risk judgment and decision making in cognitive psychology and behavioral economics,the research related to behavioral insurance economics is gradually flourishing.This paper summarized the development of behavioral insurance economics in foreign countries from five aspects:origin of research,psychological research basis,insurance demand anomaly and its interpretation,behavioral improvement of insurance decision model and insurance supply anomaly and its interpretation.It is found that there are two main deficiencies in the existing research.First,the existing behavioral insurance decision models are either beautiful in form but poor in explanatory power,with unstable conclusions,or adequate in explanation but are more of a psychological model than an economic model,with problems such as too many decision-making factors and objectives,and failure to explain the law of group or social insurance demands.Second,the existing research mainly focuses on the insurance markets of developed countries,and there are relatively few studies on the anomaly of insurance markets of China and other developing countries.This paper proposed two directions for the future development of behavioral insurance economics:one was to study the distribution law of the group′s risk judgment deviation,and to establish a concise and effective behavioral insurance decision model by searching for core variables,and strive to explain the law of group or social insurance demands stably.Secondly,it was necessary to strengthen the research on the unique anomalies of the insurance markets in China and other developing countries.In particular,it was necessary to carry out research on the common supply anomalies such as "risky operations" and "excessive marketing" in China′s insurance market.

Key words：behavioral economics;insurance demand anomaly;anomaly of insurance supply;risk judgment;insurance decisions