《保险研究》20220908-《税优型第三支柱养老金建设的经济效应》（赵恒、周延、岳莹聪）

［摘   要］本文通过构建一个动态一般均衡世代交叠模型，引入三支柱养老保障体系，考虑通胀因素及收益率影响，厘清了开展税优型第三支柱养老金建设的经济影响机制与经济效应。研究发现:投资收益率是决定税优型第三支柱建设产生正向与更优经济效应的重要因素；降低EET模式第三支柱延迟税率未必产生正向的经济效应，且该政策的效果不是最优的；建设EET与TEE模式第三支柱均可以产生较好的经济效应，但是EET模式在当前中国经济环境下更优；通胀水平如果增长过快，不仅直接影响产出与三支柱年度收入，还通过影响消费与劳动供给结构间接影响产出与三支柱年度收入。

［关键词］第三支柱养老金；税收优惠；经济效应；动态一般均衡

［基金项目］上海市社科规划一般课题“大病保险的减贫与抑制‘返贫’效应研究”(2020BGL020)。

［作者简介］赵恒，华东师范大学经济学院金融学博士研究生；周延，华东师范大学经济学院教授，博士生导师；岳莹聪，现就职于天职国际会计师事务所金融服务部，管理学硕士。

The Economic Effects of Building a Tax-advantaged Third Pillar Pension

ZHAO Heng,ZHOU Yan,YUE Ying-cong

Abstract：By constructing a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations model,innovatively introducing a complete three-pillar pension protection system,and considering the effects of inflation and rate of return,this paper clarified the economic impact mechanism and economic effects of building a tax-advantaged third pillar pension.The study finds that:firstly,the investment return is an important factor in determining the positive and better economic effects of tax-advantaged third pillar construction;secondly,reducing the deferred tax rate of the EET model may not have a positive economic effect,and the effect of this policy is not optimal;thirdly,building the third pillar of the EET and TEE models can both have a better economic effect,but the EET model is better for the current economic environment in China;fourthly,if the level of inflation increases too rapidly,it will not only affect output and annual income of the three pillars directly,but also indirectly by affecting the structure of consumption and labour supply.

Key words：third pillar pensions;tax benefits;economic effects;dynamic general equilibrium