《保险研究》20220702-《监管宽容对寿险公司风险承担的影响》（初立苹、倪红霞、朱文革、李向阳）

［摘   要］本文以2010年~2019年我国74家寿险公司为研究样本,从广度和深度两个维度对监管宽容予以界定,继而探究监管宽容对寿险公司风险承担的影响。实证研究发现,无论广度还是深度,寿险公司确实被给予了监管宽容,同时logit模型和补对数-对数模型均证实监管宽容不是稀有事件,也不存在稀有事件偏差,而且边际效应测度表明,偿二代后被给予监管宽容的概率增加了11.3%~12.8%；监管越宽容,寿险公司的经营风险和承保风险就越大,而投资风险则越小,特别是对于处于监管边界的寿险公司；相对广度,监管宽容深度主要是通过非效率投资这一路径对寿险公司风险承担产生显著影响。最后,本文提出应对纯保障属性低、业务集中度高、举债比例高、第一股东持股比例低等画像特征的寿险公司给予监管宽容,实施差异化监管的同时集中精力守住包括寿险公司在内的金融机构不发生系统性风险的底线。

［关键词］风险承担；监管宽容；非效率投资

［基金项目］上海哲学社会科学一般项目“动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型理论框架与应用分析前沿进展研究”(项目号:2019BJL009)、国家社会科学基金后期项目“SVAR模型结构识别与应用研究”(项目号:20FJLB003)的阶段性研究成果。

［作者简介］初立苹，上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院讲师；倪红霞，上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院讲师；朱文革，上海财经大学金融学院教授；李向阳(通讯作者)，上海海关学院海关与公共经济学院讲师。

The Impacts of Regulatory Tolerance on Risk-Taking by Life Insurance Companies

CHU Li-ping,NI Hong-xia,ZHU Wen-ge,LI Xiang-yang

Abstract：This article took the panel data of 74 life insurance companies in China from 2010 to 2019 as a research sample,defined regulatory tolerance from the two dimensions of breadth and depth,and explored on the impacts of regulatory tolerance on life insurance companies′ risk-taking.The results find that there is,indeed,regulatory tolerance,towards life insurance companies,no matter from the perspective of breadth or depth.At the same time,the logit model and the complement log-log model both confirm that regulatory tolerance is not a rare event,and there is no rare event deviation,either.Moreover,the marginal effect measurement shows that the probability of granting regulatory tolerance increases by 11.3%-12.8% after the implementation of solvency II;the more tolerant the regulation is,the greater the operating and underwriting risks of life insurance companies,while the lower the investment risk,especially for insurers at the regulatory hurdle;relative to the breadth of regulatory tolerance,the depth of regulatory tolerance exerts impacts on insurers′ risk-taking mainly through the route of inefficient investment.Finally,the paper proposed to grant regulatory tolerance towards life insurers characterized with low pure protection attribute,high business concentration,high debt ratio,low shareholding by the No.1 shareholder,and conduct differentiated supervisions while keeping financial institutions including life insurance companies away from generating systemic risks.

Key words：risk-taking;regulatory tolerance;inefficient investment