《保险研究》20220604-《农业保险财政补贴政策能调整作物种植结构吗？——来自中国准自然实验的证据》（江生忠、付爽、李文中）

［摘   要］合理的种植业结构是粮食安全内涵的重要组成部分。本文以2002~2018年省级面板数据为样本,将逐步推进的农业保险财政补贴政策作为一项准自然实验,实证检验了农业保险财政补贴政策对农作物种植面积影响的作用机制及效果。研究发现:农业保险财政补贴政策显著提高了水稻和小麦的种植面积,能够发挥助力种植业结构调整的作用,并且这种影响效应具有持续性；农业保险财政补贴政策对作物种植面积的影响效果具有异质性,在作物非主产省的促进效果更加明显。机制分析表明,通过收入效应渠道,财政补贴政策能够有效释放农业保险需求,提高农户的投保积极性,促进作物种植面积调整；通过替代效应渠道,相互竞争的主产作物间补贴水平差异能够诱导农户重新进行土地分配,实现作物间的相互替代,达到优化调整种植业结构的目标。本文的发现为农业保险财政补贴政策对作物种植面积的影响效应提供了来自中国的证据,基于此本文提出加大农业保险财政支持力度、制定差异化补贴政策和加强发展地方特色优势农产品保险等相关建议。

［关键词］农业保险；财政补贴；种植结构；竞争作物

［作者简介］江生忠,南开大学金融学院教授,南开大学农业保险研究中心主任,博士生导师,研究方向:农业保险；付爽,南开大学金融学院博士研究生,研究方向:农业保险；李文中,首都经济贸易大学金融学院保险系副主任,副教授,农村保险研究所副所长,研究方向:农业保险。

Can the Agricultural Insurance Subsidy Policy Change the Crop Planting Structure?—Evidences from Chinese Quasi-natural Experiments

JIANG Sheng-zhong,FU Shuang,LI Wen-zhong

Abstract：A reasonable planting industry structure is an important part of the connotation of food security.Taking the provincial panel data from 2002 to 2018 as a sample,and through the exogenous quasi-natural experiments gradually promoted by the agricultural insurance subsidy policy,this paper empirically tested the influencing mechanism of agricultural insurance subsidy policy on crop acreage and the actual effects.The study finds that the agricultural insurance subsidy policy has significantly increased the acreage of rice and wheat,indicating that the policy can promote the adjustment of the planting industry structure.And this effect is sustainable.At the same time,its effect on crop acreage is heterogeneous,with the promotion effect more obvious in non-major crop-producing provinces.The mechanism analysis shows that through the income effect channel,the subsidy policy can effectively release the demand for agricultural insurance,lift the enthusiasm of farmers to purchase insurance,and promote the adjustment of crop acreage.Through the substitution effect channel,the difference in subsidy levels among competing crops can induce farmers to redistribute land,realize the mutual substitution of crops,and achieve the goal of optimizing and adjusting the planting industry structure.The findings of this paper provide evidences from China for the effect of agricultural insurance fiscal subsidy policies on crop acreage.Based on this,this paper put forward relevant suggestions such as increasing fiscal support for agricultural insurance,formulating differentiated subsidy policies,and strengthening the development of agricultural product insurance with local characteristics and advantages.

Key words：agricultural insurance;subsidies policy;planting structure;competing crops