《保险研究》20260301-《航运保险对国家航运安全的影响机制研究——基于俄乌冲突制裁与反制裁视角》（张勇、邢妍菁）

［摘   要］航运保险日益成为大国航运安全博弈的重要手段，本文梳理了俄乌冲突后西方对俄罗斯涉及航运保险制裁的措施及俄罗斯的反制措施。在界定国家航运安全内涵基础上，从结构角度提出国际航运保险市场独特的运行规则和控制结构是制裁能够传导并生效的关键，从过程角度分析了航运保险制裁影响国家航运安全的四种路径：降低保险机构国际信用评级、断供保险和再保险、断供跨国保险和再保险经纪服务以及断供港口服务，形成了航运保险影响国家航运安全的机制。通过设计航运保险制裁指数和构建向量误差修正模型进行了实证检验，发现航运保险制裁会导致本国籍船海外港口靠泊减少，并在长期导致国际贸易收缩。建议从提升航运再保险自主供给能力、完善海外代理和服务网络布局、营造良好行业发展环境三方面提升我国航运保险的承保能力和全球服务水平。

［关键词］航运保险；航运安全；俄乌冲突；制裁;向量误差修正模型

［基金项目］本文获上海市哲社办智库项目、中国社会科学院-上海市人民政府上海研究院项目（2023jb032）资助。

［作者简介］张勇，上海市发展改革研究院副院长、高级经济师，研究方向：航运、区域经济；邢妍菁，上海市发展改革研究院经济师，研究方向：航运、区域经济。

A Study on the Impact Mechanism of Marine Insurance on National Shipping Security—Based on sanctions and counter-sanctions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict

ZHANG Yong，XING Yan-jing

Abstract：Marine insurance has increasingly become a crucial tool for major powers in the contest over maritime shipping security.This paper reviews the Western sanctions on Russia related to marine insurance and Russia′s corresponding countermeasures in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.Based on defining the connotation of national shipping security，this study proposes from a structural perspective that the unique operational rules and control structure of the international marine insurance market are the key to the transmission and effectiveness of such sanctions.From a process perspective，it analyzes four pathways through which marine insurance sanctions impact national shipping security：downgrading the international credit ratings of insurance institutions，cutting off the supply of insurance and reinsurance，suspending cross-border insurance and reinsurance brokerage services，and restricting port services.These pathways collectively form the mechanism by which marine insurance exerts influence on national shipping security.An empirical test is carried out by constructing a marine insurance sanction index and establishing a Vector Error Correction Model （VECM）.The findings indicate that marine insurance sanctions lead to a decrease in overseas port calls and result in the contraction of international trade in the long run.To enhance China′s underwriting capacity and global service level in marine insurance，this paper puts forward three suggestions：improving the independent supply capacity of marine reinsurance，optimizing the layout of overseas agency and service networks，and fostering a sound development environment for the industry.

Key words：marine insurance;national maritime security;Russia-Ukraine conflict;sanctions;VECM