《保险研究》20251101-《会计信息质量反映了保险公司破产风险吗？——基于财产保险公司数据的实证检验》（彭雪梅、袁雪、张珏）

［摘   要］破产风险管理是保险公司稳健经营的核心议题，而会计信息是外部投资者和监管者评估企业风险的重要依据。目前关于保险公司会计信息质量是否能反映破产风险,尚缺乏系统研究。本文以2010~2022年中国85家财产保险公司为研究样本，实证检验了会计信息质量对保险公司破产风险的预警信号作用。研究发现：会计信息质量持续下降显著显示了公司破产风险，具有前瞻性信号作用；真实盈余管理同样显示破产风险，且与应计盈余管理在破产前期具有联合操控效应；在非国有、非金融集团及高股权集中度公司中，信息质量对破产风险的解释力更强。本研究拓展了保险行业从会计信息质量视角识别并防范破产风险的工具。

［关键词］保险公司；破产风险；会计信息质量；盈余管理

［作者简介］彭雪梅，西南财经大学金融学院教授、博士生导师；袁雪，西南财经大学金融学院博士研究生；张珏，西南财经大学金融学院博士研究生。

Does Accounting Information Quality Reflect Bankruptcy Risk in Insurance Companies?—Empirical Evidences from the Property & Casualty Insurance Industry in China

PENG Xue-mei,YUAN Xue,ZHANG Jue

Abstract：Bankruptcy risk management is a core issue for the sound operation of insurance companies,and accounting information serves as a crucial basis for external investors and regulators to assess enterprise risk.However,there is still a lack of systematic research on whether the quality of accounting information can reflect bankruptcy risk in insurance companies.This paper uses a sample of 85 Chinese P&C insurance companies from 2010 to 2022 to empirically examine the signaling role of accounting information quality in predicting bankruptcy risk.The findings reveal that:a continuous decline in accounting information quality clearly flags the probability of bankruptcy,indicating its function as a forward-looking signal;real earnings management can also reveal bankruptcy risk and,together with accrual-based earnings management,exhibits joint manipulation effects at the pre-bankruptcy stage;the explanatory power of information quality on bankruptcy risk is stronger in non-state-owned enterprises,non-financial groups,and companies with high ownership concentration.This study expands the tools for identifying and preventing bankruptcy risk in insurance companies from the perspective of accounting information quality.

Key words：property & casualty insurance company;bankruptcy risk;accounting information quality;earnings management