《保险研究》20251103-《农业保险精准赔付的影响因素及路径优化研究》（周县华、杨徐进、袁歆悦、高扬）

［摘   要］近年来我国农业保险实现了跨越式发展，然而农业保险赔付不精准问题始终存在，目前已成为制约我国农业保险高质量发展的重要因素。本文运用家庭跨期决策模型，从农户需求视角，研究了农业保险精准赔付的主要影响因素，并利用2010～2020年内蒙古自治区和吉林省的种植业保险调研数据，进行实证检验。研究发现,取消绝对免赔率、提高保障程度、增加保费补贴，都有助于提高农业保险的精准赔付效果。最后，本文考察了目前仍在执行的“一省一费”政策。该政策可能会产生两个问题，一是造成农民之间“缴费与风险错配”的不公平，二是财政补贴资金难以向“高风险地区”倾斜。两者都会显著降低农业保险的精准赔付效果，而风险区划能够使上述两个问题得到明显改善。本文为评估农业保险精准赔付效果，提供了理论依据和经验证据，可为相关部门实现农业保险精细化管理提供决策参考。

［关键词］农业保险；精准赔付；保障水平；保费补贴；风险区划

［基金项目］北京市社科基金一般项目“基于多重均衡模型的农业保险精准扶贫效果研究”(17LJB007)。

［作者简介］周县华，中央财经大学中国精算研究院，安华农业保险研究院；杨徐进（通讯作者）,湖南工商大学数学与统计学院；袁歆悦，中国传媒大学新闻学院；高扬,国家林业和草原局管理干部学院。

The Influencing Factors and Optimization Paths of Precision Indemnity in Agricultural Insurance

ZHOU Xian-hua,YANG Xu-jin,YUAN Xin-yue,GAO Yang

Abstract：Despite the remarkable strides made by China’s agricultural insurance sector in recent years,the issue of imprecise indemnity still exists,which has become a major factor constraining the high quality development of the sector.Using an inter-temporal household decision framework and adopting a farmer demand perspective,this paper isolates the key determinants of precision indemnity in agricultural insurance and empirically tests them with crop insurance data from Inner Mongolia and Jilin over the 2010-2020 period.Our analysis demonstrates that abolishing absolute deductible rates,enhancing coverage levels,and raising subsidy rates can all contribute significantly to more accurate payouts.Finally,we evaluate the prevailing “one province one rate” premium policy and show that it not only engenders inequities—by misaligning farmers’ premium payment with their actual risk profiles—but also impedes the allocation of fiscal subsidies to high risk areas.Both effects materially undermine the precision of indemnity.In contrast,implementing granular risk zoning markedly mitigates these shortcomings.By integrating theoretical insights with robust empirical evidence,this study furnishes policymakers and insurers with a rigorous foundation for evaluating the effects of precision indemnity and enhancing refined management of the agricultural insurance sector.

Key words：agricultural insurance;precision indemnity;coverage level;premium subsidy;risk zoning