《保险研究》20251106-《婚姻状况对新业态劳动者养老保险偏好的影响研究》（汪荣明、伍安琪、叶明华）

［摘   要］本文基于2024年面向新业态劳动者的大样本调查数据，综合运用倾向得分匹配、工具变量法、广义结构方程模型和Bootstrap中介效应检验，分析婚姻状况对新业态劳动者社会养老保险参与和商业养老保险投保的影响机制，并探讨风险认知结构和收入水平的调节与中介路径。研究发现：婚姻显著提升新业态劳动者参与社会养老保险的概率、抑制商业养老保险投保意愿，且在低收入、低风险感知、无负债和低消费群体中更为显著。工具变量回归结果表明主要结论稳健可靠。机制分析显示，婚姻主要通过增加家庭经济压力与调整风险认知结构产生间接效应。婚姻降低了整体风险感知水平，提高了风险评价方差，使得已婚新业态劳动者在多元风险关注和收入约束下更倾向于选择覆盖面更广、稳定性更强的社会养老保险。建议优化社保参保与缴费机制，丰富商业养老保险产品类型，推进社保与商保协同发展，提高新业态劳动者养老保障水平。

［关键词］新业态劳动者；婚姻状况；养老保险偏好；倾向得分匹配

［基金项目］本文为中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目（43800-20101-222A65）和2025年度中国保险学会课题“外卖骑手的养老保险偏好研究”(ISCKT2025-N-1-16)的阶段性成果。

［作者简介］汪荣明，上海对外经贸大学校长、教授；伍安琪（通讯作者），上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院博士研究生；叶明华，华东师范大学统计学院统计与数据科学前沿理论及应用教育部重点实验室教授。

A Research on Marital Status’s Impact on Pension Insurance Preferences of Workers in New Forms of Employment

WANG Rong-ming,WU An-qi,YE Ming-hua

Abstract：Based on a large-scale 2024 survey of workers in new forms of employment,this study systematically analyzes the impact mechanism of marital status on participation in social pension insurance and the intention to purchase commercial pension insurance.It applies a combination of Propensity Score Matching (PSM),Instrumental Variable (IV) regression,Generalized Structural Equation Modeling (GSEM),and Bootstrap mediation tests.The analysis further explores the moderating and mediating roles of risk perception structures and income levels.The findings show that marriage significantly increases the probability of participating in social pension insurance,while reducing the intention to purchase commercial pension insurance—effects that are more pronounced among low-income individuals,those with low risk perception,no household debt,and low consumption levels.Results from IV regressions confirm the robustness of these conclusions.Mechanism analysis indicates that marriage exerts indirect effects primarily by increasing household financial pressure and reshaping individual risk perception structures.Specifically,marriage reduces the overall level of perceived risk while increasing the variance of risk evaluations,making married workers more likely to choose social pension insurance,which offers broader coverage and greater stability,under conditions of diversified risk concerns and income constraints.It is suggested to optimize the mechanism of social security participation and payment,enrich the types of commercial pension insurance products,promote the coordinated development of social security and commercial insurance,and improve the elderly care security level of new employment-form workers.

Key words：workers in new employment forms；marital status；pension insurance preferences；propensity score matching