《保险研究》20250807-《基于内部收益率与财政负担的灵活就业人员参保选择分析》（曾益、高一彤）

［摘   要］在我国数字经济蓬勃发展及基本养老保险制度亟待完善的背景下，如何实现灵活就业人员基本养老保险参保的个体与政府“双赢”目标？本文从个体收益与财政减负的双视角切入，以内部收益率测度个体收益，以2050年累计财政补贴测度财政负担，基于精算模型模拟测算不同参保情形对应的内部收益率与2050年累计财政补贴，为推动灵活就业人员参保工作提供思路。研究发现：若以现行制度设计扩面，无法同时提高内部收益率与降低财政负担，当最低缴费年限提高至22年及以上，其他参数不调整，灵活就业人员全部扩面至职保能够在参保类型选择上实现个体与政府“双赢”目标；如果灵活就业人员全部参加职保，22年及以上的最低缴费年限无法实现“双赢”目标，需将职保最低缴费年限进一步提高至23年或24年及以上，从而在最低缴费年限选择上兼顾个体与政府的双重目标；进一步将职保最低缴费指数降至0.4，能够在最低缴费指数选择上兼顾个体与政府的双重目标。因此，应推动灵活就业人员参加职保，并进行参数调整，将最低缴费年限上调至22年及以上，逐步上调至23年或24年及以上，将最低缴费指数下调至0.4，虽无法实现个体收益与财政减负“双赢”目标，但可兼顾二者目标。

［关键词］灵活就业人员；基本养老保险；内部收益率；财政负担；参保选择

［基金项目］本文得到国家社会科学基金重点项目“发展多层次多支柱养老保险体系的制度供给研究”（24AZD073）的资助。

［作者简介］曾益，中南财经政法大学公共管理学院教授，研究方向：养老保险；高一彤（通讯作者），中南财经政法大学公共管理学院硕士研究生，研究方向：养老保险。

An Analysis of Insurance Participation Choices of Flexible Employment Personnel Based on Internal Rate of Return and Fiscal Burden

ZENG Yi，GAO Yi-tong

Abstract：Against the backdrop of the booming development of China’s digital economy and the urgent need to improve the basic pension insurance system，how should we achieve the “win-win” goal of individuals and government regarding participation in the basic pension insurance for flexible employment personnel? This article approached the question from the dual perspectives of individual benefit and fiscal burden reduction，using internal rate of return to measure individual benefit and cumulative fiscal subsidies in 2050 to measure fiscal burden. Based on actuarial models，it simulated and calculated the internal rate of return and cumulative fiscal subsidies for different insurance scenarios in 2050，providing ideas for the government to promote the participation of flexible employment personnel in insurance. The research has found that，firstly，if the pension insurance is expanded based on the current system design，it is impossible to simultaneously increase the internal rate of return and reduce the fiscal burden. When the minimum payment period is increased to 22 years or longer and other parameters are not adjusted，expanding the coverage of occupational insurance to all flexible employment personnel can achieve a “win-win” goal for both individuals and the government in terms of the selection of insurance types. Secondly，if all flexible employees participate in the occupational insurance，the minimum payment period of 22 years or longer cannot achieve the “win-win” goal. Therefore，the minimum payment period for occupational insurance needs to be further increased to 23 years or 24 years or longer，in order to balance the dual goals of individuals and the government in the selection of the minimum payment period. Thirdly，further reducing the minimum contribution index of occupational insurance to 0.4 can balance the dual goals of individuals and the government in selecting the minimum contribution index. In summary，China should promote flexible employment personnel to participate in the occupational insurance and adjust the parameters by raising the minimum payment period to 22 years or more，then gradually increasing it to 23 or 24 years or more，and lowering the minimum payment index to 0.4. Although it cannot achieve the “win-win” goal of individual benefit and fiscal burden reduction，it can balance both goals.

Key words：flexible employment personnel;basic pension insurance;internal rate of return;fiscal burden;insurance selection