《保险研究》20250604-《间接经验、邓巴友谊环、风险判断偏差及投保规律》（郭振华、戈涵）

［摘   要］根据风险判断相关研究成果，人们往往会采用“可得性启发式”基于自身经验(包括直接经验和间接经验)判断出险概率，本文首先构建了基于直接经验和间接经验的个体主观概率分布模型，然后结合情感距离影响风险感知的理论和邓巴的社交网络圈层理论，在界定模型参数和个体同质假设下，对间接经验如何影响风险判断偏差进行量化研究，得到社会群体的风险判断偏差规律，并分析风险判断偏差影响下的投保规律，主要结论是：第一，在客观概率(0，1)区间上，随着客观概率升高，群体低估比例从近100%降低至近0%，高估比例从近0%升高至近100%，低估程度和高估程度均从最高值降至近0；第二，在保险风险客观概率(0，0.2］区间上，随着客观概率升高，群体低估比例从近100%逐渐下降但未降至50%以下，高估比例从近0%逐渐升高但未升至50%以上，低估程度和高估程度均从最高值逐渐下降；第三，对客观概率(0，0.2］区间上的保险风险，客观概率越高，由高估风险驱动的投保率越高，但是，即便保险公司只收取纯保费，风险中性的消费者的群体投保率也不高于50%。

［关键词］行为保险学；可得性启发式；间接经验；风险判断偏差；投保规律

［作者简介］郭振华，上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院教授、保险系主任；戈涵，上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院保险系硕士研究生。

Indirect Experience，Dunbar Friendship Ring，Risk Judgment Bias，and Insurance Application Pattern

GUO Zhen-hua，Ge Han

Abstract：According to the research on risk assessment，people often use the "availability heuristic" to determine the probability of risk based on their own experience (including direct and indirect experience).This article first constructs an individual subjective probability distribution model based on direct and indirect experience，and then combines the theory of emotional distance affecting risk perception and Dunbar′s social network circle theory to quantitatively study how indirect experience affects risk assessment bias under the definition of model parameters and the assumption of individual homogeneity.Thus，the risk assessment bias law of social groups is obtained，and the insurance application law under the influence of risk assessment bias is analyzed.The following main conclusions are obtained.Firstly，in the objective probability interval (0，1)，as the objective probability increases，the underestimation proportion of the group decreases from nearly 100% to nearly 0%，the overestimation proportion increases from nearly 0% to nearly 100%，and the underestimation degree and overestimation degree both decrease from the highest value to nearly 0.Secondly，in the objective probability interval (0，0.2] of insured risk，as the objective probability increases，the underestimation proportion of the group gradually decreases from nearly 100% but does not reach below 50%，and the overestimation proportion gradually increases from nearly 0% but does not reach above 50%.The degree of underestimation and overestimation both gradually decrease from the highest value.Thirdly，for insured risks in the objective probability interval (0，0.2]，the higher the objective probability，the higher the insurance application rate driven by overestimating risk.However，even if insurance companies only charge pure premiums，the application rate of risk neutral consumers is not higher than 50%.

Key words：behavioral insurance;availability heuristic;indirect experience;risk judgment bias;insurance application pattern