《保险研究》20250609-《“延迟退休”影响生育率的新机制与新证据：理论分析与实证检验》（管国锋、于文广、王璐）

［摘   要］本文通过构建世代交叠模型，从经济和时间隔代抚养的视角，将超过法定退休年龄后继续工作的行为界定为延迟退休，探讨了延迟退休对生育率的影响及其作用机制，并结合中国家庭追踪调查数据进行了实证分析。研究表明，延迟退休降低了老年人参与隔代抚养的时间，削弱了时间隔代抚养对生育率的正向作用；提高了老年人的收入，增强了经济隔代抚养对生育率的正向作用。但整体来看，时间隔代抚养的“削弱效应”超过了经济隔代抚养的“增强效应”，最终降低了生育率。异质性分析结果显示，延迟退休对生育率的负向影响在女性老年人、有生育意愿的家庭、低收入家庭以及在生育率较高省份更显著。进一步分析结果表明，延迟退休也显著降低了二胎和三胎的生育率；在尚未达到“渐进式延迟退休政策”年龄上限前，暂未对生育率产生负面影响。本文建议，在积极推行延迟退休政策的同时制定生育配套政策，以减轻延迟退休对生育率的负面影响，促进生育政策与延迟退休政策的协同发展。

［关键词］延迟退休；时间隔代抚养；经济隔代抚养；生育率

［基金项目］新疆天池英才计划专项经费；国家社会科学基金项目“积极老龄化视角下老年人才红利开发与政策研究”(24BJY183)；山东省社会科学规划研究项目“健康人力资本红利视角下低龄老年劳动就业的决策机理、价值效应与保障机制研究”(22CJJJ29)；山东省自然科学基金面上项目“人口质量红利下的微观决策：老年劳动供给与家庭代际收入转移”(ZR2022MG027)；山东省社会科学规划研究项目“微观多维识别视阈下医疗保险在乡村振兴建设中的作用机制与制度优化研究”(22CGLJ21)；2025年自治区高校基本科研

［作者简介］管国锋，经济学博士，新疆科技学院经济学院讲师；于文广，山东财经大学教务处处长、教授；王璐(通讯作者)，天津财经大学财税与公共管理学院讲师。

New Mechanisms and Evidences for the Impact of “Delayed Retirement” on Fertility Rates：Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Testing

GUAN Guo-feng，YU Wen-guang，WANG Lu

Abstract：This paper constructs an overlapping generations model and，from the perspectives of time and economic resource spent on intergenerational caregiving，defines delayed retirement as the behavior of continuing to work beyond retirement age.It explores the impact and mechanism of delayed retirement on fertility rate，and conducts empirical analysis based on China Family Panel Studies (CFPS).The research shows that delayed retirement reduces the time for elderly people to participate in intergenerational caregiving，weakening the positive effect of intergenerational caregiving on fertility rates.At the same time，delayed retirement has increased the income of the elderly and strengthened the positive effect of intergenerational economic support on fertility rates.However，overall，the "weakening effect" in terms of reduced intergenerational caregiving time exceeds the "strengthening effect" of intergenerational economic support，ultimately leading to a decrease in fertility rates due to delayed retirement.The heterogeneity analysis results show that the negative impact of delayed retirement on fertility is more significant for elderly women，families with fertility intentions，low-income families，and provinces with higher fertility rates.Further analysis shows that delayed retirement significantly reduces the birth rates of second and third children.Before reaching the age limit of the 'gradual delayed retirement policy'，delayed retirement has not had a negative impact on fertility rates.Therefore，this paper suggests actively promoting the policy of delayed retirement and formulating a supportive fertility policy to alleviate the negative impact of delayed retirement on fertility rates and promote the coordinated development of fertility policies and delayed retirement policies.

Key words：delayed retirement;time resource spent on intergenerational caregiving;economic resource spent on intergenerational caregiving;fertility rate