《保险研究》20250202-《货币政策对通胀预期的影响机制研究》（张成思、蒋仁智、林梦瑶）

［摘   要］预期决定行为，所以经济主体的通胀预期或通缩预期对宏观政策实施效果具有关键性影响。已有研究多关注通胀预期如何影响货币政策，较少关注货币政策如何影响通胀预期，特别是不同层级的货币政策变量调整对不同经济主体通胀预期影响的时效性特征鲜有研究。为此，本文从适应性学习理论和信息粘性理论出发，根据经济主体的信息集差异，在传染病学模型基础上分别构建居民和专家通胀预期形成机制模型，从货币政策操作目标和中间目标两个层面以及价格型和数量型两种调控类型，分析2000~2023年期间货币政策变量对居民和专家通胀预期的即期影响和动态影响特征。研究显示：货币政策对居民和专家通胀预期的即期影响存在显著差异，价格型货币政策对居民通胀预期影响显著，数量型货币政策对专家通胀预期影响显著。货币政策变量对居民和专家通胀预期的动态影响也不相同：大部分货币政策变量能够显著影响居民通胀预期，而专家通胀预期则只对M1增长率反应显著。我国货币政策调控由数量型转向价格型使货币政策变量对通胀预期的影响发生了变化，在2011年之后，价格型货币政策对居民和专家通胀预期的动态影响占主导。研究结果可为中央银行实施精准预期管理提供有益参考。

［关键词］货币政策；通胀预期；通缩预期；中央银行

［基金项目］本研究受中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金)(项目批准号:17XNLG01)资助。

［作者简介］张成思，中国人民大学财政金融学院教授，中国财政金融政策研究中心研究员，研究方向：货币金融；蒋仁智，中国人民大学财政金融学院博士研究生，研究方向：货币政策；林梦瑶(通讯作者)，经济学博士，任职于中国人民银行金融研究所。

The Impact Mechanism of Monetary Policy on Inflation Expectations

ZHANG Cheng-si,JIANG Ren-zhi,LIN Meng-yao

Abstract：Expectations determine behaviors,so the inflation or deflation expectations of economic agents have a crucial impact on the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy implementation.Existing research has largely focused on how inflation expectations influence monetary policy,with less attention paid to how monetary policy affects inflation expectations,particularly the timeliness characteristics of the impact of adjustments in monetary policy variables at different levels on the inflation expectations of different economic agents.To address this,this paper starts from adaptive learning theory and sticky information theory,building models for the formation of inflation expectations for both residents and experts based on differences in their information sets within an epidemiological model framework.The analysis covers two levels—operational targets and intermediate targets,and two types of regulatory measures—price-based and quantity-based,to examine the immediate and dynamic impacts of monetary policy variables on the inflation expectations of residents and experts during the period from 2000 to 2023.The study shows that there are significant differences in the immediate impact of monetary policy on the inflation expectations of residents and experts,price-based monetary policy significantly affects residents’ inflation expectations,while quantity-based monetary policy significantly influences experts’ inflation expectations.The dynamic impact of monetary policy variables on the inflation expectations of residents and experts also differs:most monetary policy variables can significantly affect residents’ inflation expectations,whereas experts’ inflation expectations respond significantly only to the growth rate of M1.The shift from quantity-based to price-based monetary policy regulation in China has altered the impact of monetary policy variables on inflation expectations.Since 2011,the dynamic impact of price-based monetary policy on the inflation expectations of both residents and experts has become predominant.The findings provide a reference for central banks to implement precise expectation management.

Key words：Monetary policy；Inflation Expectation；Deflation Expectation；Central Bank