《保险研究》20250205-《服务或现金：长期护理保险如何影响子女劳动参与——基于三重差分法的效应识别分析》（杨红燕、邓智宇、周致远）

［摘   要］本文基于2013～2020年4期中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据，使用三重差分法，实证分析长期护理保险试点政策对失能家庭子女劳动参与的影响。研究发现，试点政策总体上挤出了失能家庭子女的劳动参与。提供现金补贴的试点政策使失能家庭的子女劳动参与率显著降低6.9个百分点；仅提供照护服务的试点政策未产生显著影响。作用渠道分析表明，试点政策通过促进失能家庭子女提供非正式照护，挤出其劳动参与。异质性分析显示，对于无配偶、子女数量较多、有退休年龄子女的失能家庭，试点政策的挤出作用更为明显。进一步分析发现，试点政策可提升失能家庭的亲子关系满意度，家庭内部关系和谐。基于此，建议在全国推行长期护理保险制度过程中，合理设定待遇给付方式，持续强化正式照护供给能力，进一步优化家庭照护者的就业支持。

［关键词］长期护理保险；给付方式；劳动参与；三重差分法

［基金项目］国家自然科学基金面上项目（72274145）；教育部规划基金项目“基于反事实分析的长期护理保险试点政策的效应评估与优化路径研究”(22YJA630101)；教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“弱有所扶:困难群体就业援助的政策体系研究”(22JJD630015)；教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地自设项目“我国长期护理保险政策的家庭溢出效应研究”(24JDZS01)。

［作者简介］杨红燕，武汉大学社会保障研究中心(教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地)专职研究员，武汉大学政治与公共管理学院教授、博士生导师，研究方向为社会保障；邓智宇，武汉大学政治与公共管理学院博士研究生，研究方向为长期护理保险；周致远，武汉大学政治与公共管理学院硕士研究生，研究方向为养老服务。

Cash or Services:How Does Long-term Care Insurance Affect Adult Children’s Labor Force Participation?—An Analysis of Effect Identification Based on the DDD Model

YANG Hong-yan,DENG Zhi-yu,ZHOU Zhi-yuan

Abstract：This paper empirically evaluates the impact of the long-term care insurance pilot policy on the labor force participation of adult children in households with disabled elderly based on the data from the 2013-2020 four-wave China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS),using the DDD Method.The study finds that the pilot policy in general crowds out the labor force participation of adult children of such households.In the pilot cities that provide cash subsidies,the pilot policy significantly reduces the labor force participation rate of the adult children by 6.9 percentage points;in the pilot cities that only provide care services,the pilot policy has no significant impact.The analysis of the channel of impact shows that the pilot policy squeezes out labor force participation of adult children by facilitating the provision of informal care by the adult children.The heterogeneity analyses show that the pilot policy produces a more pronounced crowding-out effect if the disabled elderly has no spouse,but has a large number of children,and some of them have reached the retirement age.Further analysis reveals that the pilot policy can enhance the parent-child relationship,which is conducive to the harmony of intra-family relationships.Based on these findings,the paper suggests that,during the nationwide implementation of the long-term care insurance system,we should reasonably set the benefits payment methods,continuously strengthen the supply capacity of formal care services,and further optimize the employment support for family caregivers.

Key words：long-term care insurance;benefit method;labor force participation;DDD Model