《保险研究》20250104-《粮食安全战略下农业收入风险测度、区划与收入保险定价研究》（陈燕、林乐芬）

［摘   要］粮食安全战略下，农业收入风险测度、区划与收入保险定价成为保障粮农收入的重要课题。本文以玉米为例，测度、区划代表性省市的农业收入风险，获取省、市双层风险等级，并精算定价县级收入保险费率，形成省市级风险区划下联结县级收入保险定价的风险“测度-区划-定价”框架。研究表明：省级风险测度与区划中，大部分省份为低风险等级地区，陕西、安徽、河南的风险等级为中，辽宁为高风险等级地区。市级区划则具有地区连片性。省市两级风险区划等级结合县级纯费率，构建了县级收入保险费率的精算定价体系，其中期货价格与单产的对冲效应能够有效降低费率。本文建议，加快推动农业保险风险分区与保险精算的精准化工作，加强数据积累并成立国家级农业大数据集成共享与灾害预警平台，完善粮食作物期货市场。

［关键词］粮食安全；风险测度；风险区划；农业收入保险；保险定价

［基金项目］江苏省科技计划专项资金(基础研究计划自然科学基金)青年基金项目(BK20230710)、江苏高校哲学社会科学研究一般项目(2023SJYB1455)、中国博士后科技基金(2024M751399)、中国保险学会2023年年度研究课题(ISCKT2023-N-1-01)。

［作者简介］陈燕，常熟理工学院商学院讲师，南京大学商学院理论经济学博士后，研究方向：农业保险；林乐芬(通讯作者)：南京农业大学金融学院教授、博士生导师，研究方向：农业保险。

A Study on Agricultural Revenue Risk Measurement,Zoning and Revenue Insurance Pricing under Food Security Strategy

CHEN Yan,LIN Le-fen

Abstract：Under the food security strategy,measuring agricultural revenue risks,zoning,and pricing revenue insurance have become important issues in ensuring the revenue of farmers.This article takes corn as an example to measure and categorize the agricultural revenue risk of representative provinces and cities,obtains dual risk levels of provinces and cities,and actuarial pricing of county-level revenue insurance,and ultimately forms a risk "measurement-zoning-pricing" framework that connects county-level revenue insurance pricing under provincial and municipal risk zoning.The research results indicate that,in the provincial risk measurement and zoning,most of the corn-producing provinces are low-risk areas.Shaanxi,Anhui,and Henan have a medium risk level,while Liaoning Province is a high-risk area.City level zoning has regional continuity.The actuarial pricing system for county-level revenue insurance has been constructed by combining the risk zoning at the provincial and municipal levels with the determination of county-level pure premium rates.The hedging effect between futures prices and unit yield can effectively reduce the premium rates.It is suggested to accelerate the risk zoning of agricultural insurance and enhance the precision of actuarial work,strengthen data accumulation,establish a national level agricultural big data integration and sharing and disaster warning platform,and improve the grain crop futures market.

Key words：food security;risk measurement;risk zoning;agricultural revenue insurance;insurance pricing