《保险研究》20250105-《基于不同气象数据的天气指数保险产品基差风险分析》（赵艳霞、陈思宁、李心怡、娄伟平、张祎）

［摘   要］基差风险是天气指数保险与生俱来的缺点，可以有条件的降低，但无法完全根除。本研究以浙江省新昌县乌牛早茶树冻害为研究对象，从茶树冻害天气指数保险设计的思路入手，构建了受气温影响明显的茶树开采期模型及不同低温等级下的茶树冻害理赔模型。分别利用三种不同的气象数据——国家级地面气象观测站数据、区域气象观测站数据及通过观测数据和空间插值方法加工制作的格点气象数据，计算并详细对比了新昌县乌牛早茶树的开采期及茶树冻害累计赔偿金额。研究表明，根据不同气象数据计算的赔偿金额差异较大，要有效推广气象指数保险产品需选择基于合适空间尺度的气象数据。随着智慧气象发展，更小空间尺度气象数据生产成为可能，将更有利于降低基差风险，为气象指数保险发展提供广阔空间。

［关键词］茶树冻害；开采期；天气指数保险；基差风险；气象数据产品

［基金项目］本研究受到国家重点研发计划(2022YFD2300200)、中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项(2021Z010)、中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项(2023Y014)的大力支持。

［作者简介］赵艳霞，复旦大学大气与海洋科学系/复旦大学大气科学研究院；陈思宁，中国气象科学研究院研究员；李心怡，就职于南京气象科技创新研究院；娄伟平，就职于浙江省新昌县气象局；张祎，就职于中国气象科学研究院。

A Comparative Analysis of the Basis Risk of Weather Index Insurance Products Based on Different Meteorological Data

ZHAO Yan-xia,CHEN Si-ning,LI Xin-Yi,LOU Wei-ping,ZHANG Yi

Abstract：Basis risk is the inherent weakness of weather index agricultural insurance,which can be conditionally reduced,but can not be completely eradicated.Taking the freezing damage of "Wuniuzao" tea tree in Xinchang County,Zhejiang Province as the research object,and starting with the idea of the design of tea tree freezing damage weather index insurance,this paper constructs the model of beginning dates of tea plucking (BDTP) which is obviously affected by the temperature,and the tea tree freezing damage claim model under different low temperature levels.Using three different meteorological data sets,i.e.national surface meteorological observation station data,regional meteorological observation station data and high-resolution grid meteorological data (observation data processed by the spatial interpolation method),the BDTP of "Wuniuzao" tea trees in Xinchang County and the cumulative claims rate of freezing damage of tea trees are calculated and compared in detail.The results show that:the claims amounts calculated according to different meteorological data sets vary greatly.To promote weather index insurance effectively,we need to select meteorological data of appropriate spatial dimension.Along with the development of intelligent meteorology,meteorological data of smaller spatial dimension will become possible,which will help to mitigate the basis risk,opening up great potentials for the weather index insurance.

Key words：tea tree freezing damage;beginning dates of tea plucking(BDTP);weather index insurance;basis risk;meteorological data sets