《保险研究》20251202-《居民消费中的保险及其影响——基于美国CPI资料》（王向楠）

［摘   要］美国保险业发达，居民消费规模庞大。本文基于美国消费者价格指数(CPI)的有关资料和数据，说明三种保险商品的价格统计方法，分析保险消费与相关居民消费的关系。对于住宅保险价格，结合几个微观调查数据，采用直接法进行统计，其中涉及较多估算。美国住宅保险价格涨幅的周期性较强，商品的相对重要性较平稳。发展住宅保险有助于降低住房综合持有成本，促进住房租赁市场发展。对于机动车险价格，基于全国性保险行业组织提供的个体保单样本数据，采用直接法进行统计。美国机动车险价格涨幅在新冠疫情期间波动较大，商品的相对重要性较平稳。机动车险消费与机动车维修保养消费之间存在显著的互动关系。对于健康保险价格，基于全国性保险监督官协会提供的行业汇总数据，采用基于“自留比率”的间接法进行统计。美国健康保险价格涨幅的波动很大，健康险商品的相对重要性呈上升趋势。降低健康保险价格，支持居民参与健康保险，会促进医疗保健物品和服务的消费。本文丰富了有关保险活动经济影响的实证文献，为我国如何在CPI及其他消费指标的统计工作中处理保险商品提供参考。

［关键词］家庭财产保险；房屋保险；车险；健康保险；医疗保险；消费者价格指数

［基金项目］国家社会科学基金年度项目(22BGL062)。

［作者简介］王向楠，中国社会科学院保险与经济发展研究中心、中国社会科学院金融研究所研究员、教授。

Insurance and Its Impact in Household Consumption：Based on U.S.CPI Data

WANG Xiang-nan

Abstract：The United States has a well-developed insurance industry and a large scale of household consumption.Based on documentation and data related to the U.S.Consumer Price Index (CPI)，this article explains the prices’ statistical methodology for three types of insurance commodities and analyzes the relationship between insurance consumption and related household consumption.1) For home insurance’ price，using several micro-survey datasets，a direct method is applied，involving significant estimation.In the U.S.，home insurance prices exhibit strong cyclicality，and its relative importance (RI) remains relatively stable.Expanding home insurance can help lower the comprehensive cost of housing ownership and promote the rental housing market.2) For automobile insurance’s price，using individual policy sample data provided by a nationwide insurance trade organization，a direct statistical method is applied.In the U.S.，automobile insurance prices fluctuated significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic，while its relative importance remains relatively stable.There is a significant interaction between automobile insurance consumption and motor vehicle repair and maintenance consumption.3) For health insurance’ price，using industry aggregate data from a nationwide organization of insurance commissioners，an indirect method based on “retained earnings rate” is applied.In the U.S.，health insurance prices are highly volatile，and the item’s relative importance show an upward trend.Lowering health insurance prices and promoting broader enrollment can stimulate greater use of medical goods and services.This article enriches the empirical literature on insurance activities’ economic effects.It also offers direct reference for handling insurance commodities in China’s CPI and other consumption statistics.

Key words：household property insurance;home insurance;automobile insurance;health insurance;medical insurance;CPI