《保险研究》20251208-《我国城镇职工养老保险的地区支出差距及归因分析》（阳义南、付恒舒）

［摘   要］本文基于全国31个省份2012~2022年的面板数据，运用Dagum基尼系数分解、核密度估计、两种收敛模型、地理探测器、QAP等方法，综合测度城镇职工养老保险地区支出差距的基本情况、分布形态、收敛趋势，并剖析其影响因素。结果表明，全国城镇职工养老保险的地区支出差距总体较大，虽略呈缩小态势但缩减速度在减缓。地区内差距表现为西部最大、东部次之、中部最小；东部-西部、中部-西部的地区间差距总体呈减小趋势，东部-中部的地区间差距变化则不明显。东部地区σ收敛趋势较弱，中部地区不存在绝对β收敛。现行的中央“疏强扶弱”和地方“以余补缺”补贴模式会扩大我国城镇职工养老保险的地区支出差距。现有调节政策存在演进差异及实施滞后性、缺少长效补偿机制等问题。建议构建长效激励与地区协同、跨地区调剂与利益补偿等机制。

［关键词］老龄化；养老金；地区支出；全国统筹；中央调剂金制度

［基金项目］国家社会科学基金重点项目“发展多层次多支柱养老保险体系的制度供给研究”(24AZD073)。

［作者简介］阳义南，湖南大学“岳麓学者”特聘教授、博士生导师，主要研究方向：社会保障、老年经济学；付恒舒，湖南大学公共管理学院博士研究生。

Regional Disparities and Attribution Analysis of Urban Employee Pension Insurance Expenditures in China

YANG Yi-nan，FU Heng-shu

Abstract：Based on panel data from 31 provinces in China covering the period from 2012 to 2022，this study employs a comprehensive methodology including Dagum’s decomposition of the Gini coefficient，kernel density estimation，two convergence models，the geographical detector，and the Quadratic Assignment Procedure (QAP).It measures the basic characteristics，distribution patterns，and convergence trends of regional disparities in urban employee pension insurance expenditures，while also analyzing the influencing factors.The results show that overall regional disparities in expenditures remain large.Although there is a slight narrowing trend，the pace of narrowing has slowed.Within regions，the western region exhibits the largest disparities，followed by the eastern region，with the central region being the smallest.Inter-regional disparities between the eastern and western regions，as well as between the central and western regions，generally show a decreasing trend，while the disparity between the eastern and central regions remains relatively unchanged.Expenditure levels have generally increased across all regions，but significant gaps between the national average and expenditures in the central and western regions persist，accompanied by polarization.The eastern region shows weaker evidence of convergence，while the central region exhibits no evidence of absolute β-convergence.The current central government subsidy model of “moderating the strong and supporting the weak” and the local government practice of “using surplus funds to fill gaps” are likely to widen regional expenditure disparities in China’s urban employee pension insurance system.Existing adjustment policies face challenges including divergent policy evolution，implementation lags，and the absence of long-term compensation mechanisms.Finally，this study proposes establishing long-term incentive and regional coordination mechanisms，as well as cross-regional adjustment and benefit compensation mechanisms.

Key words：population aging;pension;regional expenditures;nationwide coordination;Central Adjustment Fund system