《保险研究》20250502-《县级政府财政压力对农业保险多层次发展的影响——基于险种结构多元化的视角》（魏超、雒新慧、陈盛伟、牛浩）

［摘   要］作为高度依赖财政补贴的政策性金融工具，农业保险如何在地方财政面临压力的现实背景下实现多层次发展，亟需做出回答。何为农业保险多层次发展，可以从多个维度理解，本文从险种结构多元化的视角切入，基于2011~2022年1860个县级行政区与26个省份相匹配的面板数据，利用双向固定效应模型、调节效应模型分析县级政府财政压力对农业保险多层次发展的影响。研究发现：县级政府财政压力显著降低了农业保险险种结构多元化水平，抑制了农业保险多层次发展，这一结论在经过内生性处理与稳健性检验之后依然成立。进一步分析发现，市场竞争对县级政府财政压力与农业保险险种结构之间的关系具有负向调节作用，即市场竞争的加强能够弱化县级政府财政压力对农业保险险种结构的抑制效应。因此，建议构建差异化、精准化、分险种的保费补贴机制，探索特色农产品保险的多层次发展思路，并以有效的市场竞争引导农业保险险种结构的多元化发展。

［关键词］县级政府财政压力；农业保险；险种结构多元化；保费补贴；市场竞争

［基金项目］国家社会科学基金重点项目“基于规模、结构、效率‘三位一体’的我国农业保险政策优化研究”（23AGL026），国家社会科学基金青年项目“数字赋能农业保险精准理赔的机制、障碍与路径研究”（24CGL076），山东省自然科学基金面上项目“农业保险高质量发展效率的多维测度、影响机理及提升路径研究”（ZR2023MG068），山东省社会科学规划研究项目“农业保险高质量发展对‘齐鲁粮仓’建设的保障机理与政策优化研究”（24DGLJ28）。

［作者简介］魏超，山东农业大学经济管理学院（商学院）博士研究生；雒新慧，山东医药技师学院财务处会计师；陈盛伟，山东理工大学经济学院教授、博士生导师，研究方向：农业保险；牛浩（通讯作者），山东农业大学经济管理学院（商学院）副教授、硕士生导师，研究方向：农业保险。

The Inhibitory Effect of County-Level Government Fiscal Pressure on the Multi-Level Development of Agricultural Insurance—From the Perspective of Diversified Insurance Structure

WEI Chao，LUO Xin-hui，CHEN Sheng-wei，NIU Hao

Abstract：As a policy financial tool heavily dependent on fiscal subsidies，it is urgent to answer how agricultural insurance can achieve multi-level development in the context of the surge in local fiscal pressure.The multi-level development of agricultural insurance can be understood from multiple perspectives.This article is based on the panel data matching with 1860 county-level administrative regions and 26 provinces from 2011 to 2022.From the perspective of diversified insurance structure，it empirically analyzes the inhibitory effect of county-level government fiscal pressure on the multi-level development of agricultural insurance using a two-way fixed effect model and a moderation effect model.The research has found that the fiscal pressure on county-level governments significantly reduces the diversification level of agricultural insurance types and suppresses the multi-level development of agricultural insurance.This conclusion still holds true after endogeneity treatment and robustness testing.Further analysis reveals that market competition has a negative moderating effect on the relationship between the fiscal pressure on county-level governments and the structure of agricultural insurance products.In other words，strengthening market competition can weaken the inhibitory effect of county-level government fiscal pressure on the structure of agricultural insurance products.Therefore，it is recommended to establish a differentiated，precise，and segmented premium subsidy mechanism，explore multi-level development ideas for specialized agricultural product insurance，and guide the diversified development of agricultural insurance structure through effective market competition.

Key words：fiscal pressure on county-level governments;agricultural insurance;diversified insurance structure;premium subsidy;market competition