《保险研究》20201205-《用材林保险金额计算方法研究》（张德成、谢和生、马一博、朱洁净、范圣明、卜乐）

［摘   要］用材林保险是促进用材林更新、保障森林经营者收入的重要经济工具。合理的用材林保险金额是保证用材林保险良性发展的重要基础。本文以贵州省锦屏县为例,依据蓄积-林龄方程确定不同林龄林分单位面积的蓄积,依据胸径-蓄积方程和木材价格指数ARMA预测模型来确定木材价格下限,依据实地调查确定采集运成本上限,计算了综合立木蓄积生长、木材价格变动、采集运成本费用等因素的用材林保险金额,建立了锦屏县2020年单位面积杉木、马尾松保险金额表。本文还讨论了模型的动态更新、幼龄林保额、多年期保额等问题。本文研究目的是提出一套计算用材林保险金额的适用方法,供森林保险工作参考。

［关键词］用材林；保险金额；森林保险

［基金项目］中国保险学会2018年年度研究课题(ISCKT2018-N-1-07):用材林保险定价及补贴政策研究。

［作者简介］张德成,中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所副研究员,硕士生导师,研究方向:传统林业与林业灾害防治；谢和生,中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所副研究员,研究方向:林业政策；马一博、朱洁净、范圣明,中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所助理研究员,研究方向:林业经济管理；卜乐,中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所硕士研究生,研究方向:林业经济管理。

A Study on the Calculation Method of Insurance Coverage of Timber Forest Insurance

ZHANG De-cheng,XIE He-sheng,MA Yi-bo,ZHU Jie-jing,FAN Sheng-ming,Bu Le

Abstract：Timber forest insurance is an important economic tool to promote the renewal of timber forest and guarantee the income of forest operators.Reasonable insurance coverage of timber forest insurance is the key index to ensure its sound promotion and development.The paper made a case study in Jinping County of Guizhou Province.The volume per unit area of different forest ages was determined according to the volume age equation.The lower limit of timber price was determined according to the DBH volume equation and the ARMA prediction model of timber price index.The upper limit of collection and transportation cost was determined according to the field survey.And then the insurance coverage amount was calculated based on the timber growth,price change and harvest cost factors.Thus,the paper established the table of insurance coverage per unit area of Cunninghamia lanceolata and Pinus massoniana in Jinping County in 2020.This paper also discussed the dynamic updating of the model,the insurance coverage of young forest and the amount of multi-year coverage.The purpose of this paper is to put forward a method for calculating the insurance coverage of timber forest insurance,which can be used as a reference for forest insurance.

Key words：timber forest; insurance coverage; forest insurance