《保险研究》20201004-《基于空间杜宾模型的保险业发展时空格局研究》（王韧、农通理、张双双）

［摘   要］我国保险业要实现高质量发展,必须考虑区域发展均衡的问题。本文采用2008～2018年我国31个省域间的保险相关数据,通过熵权TOPSIS法、动态空间杜宾模型和Shapely值分解法,对其发展进行了时空格局的分析。研究表明,中国各省份保险业发展存在显著的空间集聚特征,保险发展综合水平的空间布局峰值与我国经济发展状况分布基本一致,而近年来部分中西部地区省份的保险发展综合水平亦得到了较大提高。同时,我国保险业发展存在较为明显的空间溢出效应,其中,城镇化水平及人口受教育程度分别在短期及长期的正向溢出影响方面表现较为显著。因此,应从政府及保险公司层面优化保险区域发展政策,积极引导促进保险行业合理布局,促进要素合理流动,进一步促进保险业的均衡发展。

［关键词］保险业；空间杜宾模型；空间格局

［基金项目］国家社科基金一般项目阶段性成果(19BJY161)。

［作者简介］王韧,湖南工商大学财政金融学院教授,硕士生导师,研究方向:风险管理与保险；农通理,湖南工商大学财政金融学院研究生；张双双(通讯作者),湖南工商大学财政金融学院研究生。

A Study of the Spatio-temporal Pattern of Insurance Industry Development Based on Spatial Dubin Model

WANG Ren,NONG Tong-li,ZHANG Shuang-shuang

Abstract：The issue of balanced regional development of the  insurance industry should be considered if China aims to achieve high quality development of the industry. The paper used the insurance-related data of 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2008 to 2018,and adopted the entropy TOPSIS method,the Spatial Dubin Model and the Shapely value decomposition method to do a spatio-temporal pattern analysis of its development pattern. The analysis showed that the insurance industry′s provincial development had spatial agglomeration characteristics,and the spatial distribution peak of the comprehensive level of insurance development was quite consistent with the distribution of China′s economic development. The comprehensive level of insurance development in some central and western provinces also improved accordingly in recent years. Meanwhile,the development of the insurance industry had a positive spatial spillover effect,especially the urbanization and education level had significant spillover effects in the short and long term respectively. Therefore,optimizing insurance regional development policies from both the government and insurance companies perspectives,actively guiding and promoting the rational layout of the insurance industry,and promoting the rational flow of factors will further the balanced development of the insurance industry.

Key words：insurance industry;Spatial Durbin Model;spatial pattern