《保险研究》20200807-《空气污染、居民风险认知与我国商业健康保险消费》（袁成、刘舒亭）

［摘   要］近年来空气污染带来的健康风险和经济损失备受关注。伴随着风险认知程度的提升,公众越来越积极地寻找各类风险管理措施来应对空气污染的危害,尤其对商业健康保险的需求与日俱增。本文围绕空气污染对商业健康保险消费的直接影响以及居民风险认知在其中的调节效应展开理论分析。在此基础上,利用我国2006～2018年省际面板数据,分别通过静态面板模型和动态面板模型进行实证检验。研究发现,空气污染对居民商业健康保险消费存在滞后的正向影响,对当期的商业健康保险消费则有抑制作用,说明目前我国居民商业健康保险消费还不具备前瞻性。进一步的,居民风险认知的调节作用显著存在,无论在短期还是长期居民对风险的认知程度都会放大空气污染对商业健康保险消费的影响,即空气污染对风险认知程度更深的居民当期商业健康保险消费会产生更大的抑制作用,对其滞后的正向促进作用也会变大。

［关键词］空气污染；风险认知；商业健康保险

［基金项目］2019年度江苏省保险学会应用课题(SBX2019-6-H-01),2019年度南京大学人文社会科学双一流建设“百层次”项目。

［作者简介］袁成,南京大学经济学院副教授,金融学博士,研究方向:人寿保险；刘舒亭,南京大学经济学院硕士研究生,研究方向:商业保险。

Air Pollution,Risk Perception and Commercial Health Insurance Consumption in China

YUAN Cheng,LIU Shu-ting

Abstract：In recent years,the health risks and economic losses caused by air pollution have attracted much public attention.With the rise of risk perception,the public is also more and more actively looking for various risk management measures to deal with the harm of air pollution,and the demands for commercial health insurance have been increasing consistently.This paper conducted a theoretical analysis on the direct impact of air pollution on commercial health insurance consumption and the moderating effect of risk awareness.It also tested the research results with the static panel model and dynamic panel model,based on panel data of 31 provinces during 2006-2018.The empirical results show that air pollution has a significant laggard positive impact on health insurance consumption,but inhibits current health insurance purchase.This means that Chinese residents are not forward-looking in the commercial health insurance consumption.Moreover,the moderating effect of risk awareness can be clearly detected.Risk perception amplifies the impact of air pollution on commercial health insurance consumption both in the short and long term.The air pollution will have a greater inhibitory effect on current health insurance consumption for residents with stronger risk awareness,and also a stronger but laggard promoting effect.

Key words：air pollution;risk perception;commercial health insurance