《保险研究》20200809-《基本养老保险基金投资规模、约束与政府选择》（高庆波）

［摘   要］历经二十年的争论,基本养老保险基金终于确定了统一受托投资模式。虽然各界几乎一致认同基金投资在经济上更为有利,但实践中却出现了基本养老保险基金投资规模远低于累计结存金额的现象。本文探讨相关制度约束问题。研究发现,导致基金投资规模不足的主要原因,一是相关制度存在显性和隐性约束,周转性质的资金预留以及收付实现制与养老保险制度长期运行之间的隐性冲突导致可投资规模下降；二是政府履行社会保障职能的相关决策受预期影响,且养老保险基金投资决策目标并非完全基于社保制度自身,而是在多维目标体系中权衡。鉴于未来十年养老保险累计结存仍将继续攀升并达到历史高位,建议尽快明晰各方主体权利与义务,并提升统筹层次，明晰相关制度安排,尽力消除基金投资中的各种制度约束,从源头上提升基本养老保险制度的财务可持续性。

［关键词］基本养老保险基金；制度；科层制；政府行为

［作者简介］高庆波,中国社会科学院社会发展战略研究院副研究员,中国社会科学院社会保障实验室执行研究员,研究方向:养老保障。

Basic Pension Insurance Fund Investment:Scale,Constraints and Government Choices

GAO Qing-bo

Abstract：After 20 years of debate,the unified trust investment model has finally been determined as the investment model for the basic pension insurance fund.Although almost all researchers agree that it is more economically rational to make investment of the fund,the amount of investment is much smaller than the accumulated fund.The article analyzed the relevant institutional constraints.It found that the main reasons for the insufficient investment scale were as follows:firstly,there were explicit and implicit constraints in the system,fund reserving for the turnover purpose and the hidden conflict between the pay-as-you-go system and long-tern operation of the pension fund led to a decline in the scale of investable fund;secondly,the government′s decision-making for performing social security function was affected by expectations,and the decision-making goals were not based solely on the social security system itself,but tried to strike balance among multi-dimensional goals.In view of the fact that the cumulative balance of basic pension insurance will continue to rise and reach historical height in the next decade,the article proposed to clearly define rights and obligations of all parties,raise the level of fund-pooling,clarify various institutional arrangements,and eliminate various institutional constraints as soon as possible,so that the financial sustainability of the basic pension insurance system can be achieved from the source.

Key words：basic pension insurance fund；policy;bureaucracy;government behaviors