《保险研究》20250306-《城乡居民基本养老保险筹资和待遇调整机制的优化》（杨再贵、许鼎）

［摘   要］本文基于国发〔2014〕8号和人社部发〔2018〕21号文件构建精算模型，测算2024～2035年远景目标期末城乡居保各年的基金收支结余、财政负担和养老金待遇。综合考察个人缴费档次、集体补助、政府缴费补贴和基础养老金等筹资和待遇调整新战略对基金结余、财政负担和保障水平的影响。结果表明：预测期内基金当年结余、累计结余、财政负担和人均养老金待遇均逐年递增；提高平均个人缴费可显著增加基金结余，且对财政负担的负向影响弱于对人均养老金待遇的正向影响；集体补助对财政负担几乎没有影响，且能同时增加基金结余和人均养老金待遇；提高政府缴费补贴对基金结余的正向影响略大于对财政负担的负向影响；提高基础养老金对人均养老金待遇的正向影响和对财政负担的负向影响都很强。据此提出优化城乡居保筹资和待遇调整机制的政策建议。

［关键词］城乡居民；养老保险；筹资机制；待遇调整；精算模型

［基金项目］教育部人文社科规划基金项目（23YJA630119）；北京市社科基金重点项目（24GLA005）；教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目（22JJD790091）；河南省哲学社会科学规划年度项目（2021BJJ107）；河南省科技攻关项目（222102320470）；保险风险分析与决策学科创新引智基地（B17050）；中央财经大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项。

［作者简介］杨再贵，中央财经大学中国精算研究院教授，博士生导师，社保精算研究中心主任，研究方向：社保精算；许鼎（通讯作者），郑州航空工业管理学院经济学院讲师，硕士生导师，研究方向：社保精算。

Optimization of Financing and Benefit Adjustment Mechanism of Basic Old-Age Insurance for Urban and Rural Residents

YANG Zai-gui,XU Ding

Abstract：This paper constructs actuarial models conforming to the 2014 Document 8 of the Central Committee of the CPC and the 2018 Document 21 of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security to estimate the social pension fund balance,fiscal burden and pension benefits in each year from 2024 to 2035.We comprehensively examine the impacts of the new strategies for adjusting the financing and benefits of basic old-age insurance for urban and rural residents,such as the adjustment of individual contribution levels,collective subsidies,government contribution subsidies and basic pensions on fund balances,fiscal burdens and security levels.The results show that the current year fund balance,cumulative balance,fiscal burden and per capita pension benefits increase year by year during the forecast period.Increasing the average individual contribution can significantly increase the fund balance,and the negative impact on the fiscal burden is weaker than the positive impact on the per capita pension benefits.Collective subsidies have little impact on the fiscal burden and can increase both fund balances and per capita pension benefits.The positive impact of increasing government subsidy on fund balance is slightly greater than the negative impact on the fiscal burden.Increasing the basic pension has a strong positive impact on the per capita pension benefits and also a strong negative impact on the fiscal burden.Based on these findings,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to optimize the financing and benefit adjustment mechanism of the basic old-age insurance for urban and rural residents.

Key words：urban and rural residents;old-age insurance;financing mechanism;benefit adjustment;actuarial model