《保险研究》20241107-《制度抚养比、经济抚养力与养老金全国统筹——基于养老金缺口归因视角》（郭秀云）

［摘   要］城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金缺口有多个诱因。全国统筹的调剂目标主要解决因统筹层次低、地区之间的制度赡养负担和经济抚养能力不平衡导致的基金余缺问题。本文基于“以收定支”和“以支定收”两种思路，建立养老保险基金调剂模型并利用2022年数据进行模拟测算。研究发现，全国统筹调剂基金的贡献省份为14个，受益省份为17个，在考虑征缴率的情况下，调剂额度有所减小。建议：将制度抚养比和经济抚养力作为省际之间基金上缴下拨的主要计算依据；重视基金缺口归因分析，厘清历史责任与现实责任，规划清晰的缺口清偿路径；建立激励相容的央地责任分担机制，严控地方道德风险。

［关键词］养老金缺口；制度抚养比；经济抚养力；全国统筹

［基金项目］教育部规划基金项目“全国统筹背景下养老金缺口归因及央地支出责任分担研究”（23YTAZH044）；国家社科基金项目“育儿女性养老金损失的形成机理及补偿机制研究”（2024BRK032）。

［作者简介］郭秀云，华东政法大学政府管理学院教授、博士生导师，社会保障研究中心主任，研究方向：社会保障与公共政策。

Institutional Dependency Ratio,Economic Support Capacity,and Pension Fund National Pooling—Based on the Pension Fund Gap Attribution Perspective

GUO Xiu-yun

Abstract：There are multiple inducements for the gap of the basic pension insurance fund for urban employees.The adjustment goal of the national pooling is mainly to solve the fund surplus and shortage problem caused by the low pooling level,the institutional dependency burden between regions and the imbalance of economic support capacity.Based on the two ideas of “determining expenditure by revenue” and “determining revenue by expenditure”,this paper establishes the pension insurance fund adjustment model and simulates the data in 2022.The research finds that 14 provinces contribute to the national overall adjustment fund,and 17 provinces benefit from it.Under the condition of considering the collection rate,the amount of adjustment is reduced.The paper put forwards the following suggestions:(1) Take the institutional dependency ratio and economic support capacity as the main calculation basis of inter-provincial adjustment funds;(2) Pay attention to attribution analysis of the fund gap,clarify historical responsibility and realistic responsibility,and plan a clear path of gap repayment;(3) Establish a central-local responsibility sharing mechanism with compatible incentives to strictly control local moral hazard.

Key words：pension fund gap;institutional dependency ratio;economic support capacity;national pooling