《保险研究》20240804-《“保险+期货”服务农产品供应链风险外化与协调效应研究》（徐媛媛、张硕、崔小年）

［摘   要］针对农业产业发展的风险转移与利益分配问题，本文立足我国橡胶产业探讨“保险+期货”服务农产品供应链的运行机制，并基于蒙特卡洛模拟与数据仿真分析，对橡胶“保险+期货”风险外化与供应链协调机制展开效应评价，研究发现：“保险+期货”风险转移效率受期货价格波动性及其与期权价格间非线性关系的制约，其中增加调仓频率、买入场内期权等方式有助于收紧风险敞口，形成“从农户到投资者”的风险管理闭环；“保险+期货”供应链协调效应受农户风险规避程度与价格风险保障程度的综合作用，其中选择价格高位入场、提高补贴比例等方式将形成供给激励，推动实现供应链协调的最优状态。本研究从产业视角扩充了“保险+期货”惠农理论，探索农产品供应链“利益共享、风险转移”机制，为进一步提升资金补贴效率、促进项目提质增效提供借鉴。

［关键词］订单农业；保险+期货；期货对冲；供应链协调；天然橡胶

［基金项目］国家社会科学基金青年项目“收储制度改革背景下粮农的市场风险管理问题研究”(18CJY036)；国家自然科学基金面上项目“农产品期货与现货联合价格分布估计、基差风险与含权套期保值研究”(72173052)。

［作者简介］徐媛媛，南京林业大学经济管理学院副教授、博士，研究方向：农业风险管理；张硕(通讯作者)，中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院博士研究生，研究方向：农业风险管理；崔小年，郑州商品交易所高级经理、博士，研究方向：“保险+期货”模式。

Risk Externalization and Coordination Effect of “Insurance + Futures” Serving Agricultural Supply Chain

XU Yuan-yuan,ZHANG Shuo,CUI Xiao-nian

Abstract：This paper studies the risk transfer and benefit allocation issues regarding agricultural industry development.Focusing on the rubber industry,it investigates the mechanisms behind the “insurance + futures” model in China′s agricultural supply chain.Then,utilizing Monte Carlo simulations and data analysis,it evaluates dual effects of “insurance + futures” on risk externalization and supply chain coordination.The results show that its risk transfer efficiency is constrained by the volatility of futures prices and their nonlinear relationship with option prices.Strategies such as incorporating Gamma hedging or increasing rebalance frequency can help to mitigate risk exposures,thereby forming a closed loop of risk management “from farmers to investors”.Furthermore,its effect on supply chain coordination is influenced by farmers′ risk aversion and the insurance coverage level against the price risk.Entering the market at high price levels and increasing subsidy ratios would contribute to bolstering farmers′ production enthusiasm and promoting the optimal state of supply chain coordination.This study expands the “insurance + futures” pro-agricultural theories,explores on the “benefit sharing and risk transfer” mechanism in agricultural product supply chain.It provides valuable insights for further advancing financial subsidy efficiency and enhancing on the effectiveness of related projects.

Key words：contract farming;insurance + futures;futures hedging;supply chain coordination;natural rubber