《保险研究》20230704-《养老金三支柱体系缴费率影响劳动供给的经济机制》（赵恒、周延）

［摘   要］多国养老金改革的实践经验表明，缴费率调整会使得劳动供给规模与结构发生变化。本文通过构建一个动态一般均衡世代交叠模型，引入完整的养老金三支柱体系，厘清了养老金缴费率影响劳动供给的经济机制。研究发现：第一支柱、第二支柱养老金企业缴费率与劳动供给总量呈倒U型关系，如果第一支柱个人领取的养老金实际收益率继续提升，容易步入福利陷阱，以往促进劳动供给总量增长的养老金缴费政策将会失效；当三支柱养老金体系个人缴费率合计小于19.58%时，第一支柱、第二支柱、EET模式第三支柱、TEE模式第三支柱与TTE模式第三支柱个人缴费率提升促进劳动供给总量增长；将第一支柱企业缴费政策与第三支柱个人缴费政策进行组合，可以对劳动供给总量、成年劳动供给与老年劳动供给进行调节。

［关键词］养老金三支柱体系；养老金缴费率；劳动供给规模；劳动供给结构；动态一般均衡

［基金项目］教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“中国特色多层次贫困治理与保险保障体系研究”(22JJD790089)、华东师范大学优秀博士生学术创新能力提升计划项目“第三支柱养老金收益率影响消费与劳动供给的经济机制及政策研究”(YBNLTS2023-030)。

［作者简介］赵恒，华东师范大学经济学院金融学博士研究生；周延，华东师范大学经济学院教授、博士生导师。

The Economic Mechanism by which Contribution Rates of the Three-Pillar Pension System Affects Labor Supply

ZHAO Heng,ZHOU Yan

Abstract：The practical experiences of pension reforms in many countries show that the adjustment of contribution rates will lead to changes in the scale and structure of labor supply.This paper clarifies the economic mechanism of pension contribution rates affecting labor supply by constructing a dynamic general equilibrium generation overlap model and introducing a complete three-pillar pension system.The following findings are derived.First,the corporate contribution rates of the first and second pillar pensions have an inverted U-shaped relationship with total labor supply.If the real rate of return received by individuals from the first pillar continues to rise,it can easily lead to the welfare trap,and the previous pension contribution policies for promoting the growth of the total labor supply will fail.Second,when the combined value of the individual contribution rate of the three-pillar pension system is less than 19.58%,the increase in the individual contribution rate of the first pillar,the second pillar,and the EET model,the TEE model,and the TTE model of the third pillar will promote the growth of total labor supply.Third,the combination of the first pillar enterprise contribution policy and the third pillar individual contribution policy can regulate the total labor supply,adult labor supply and old age labor supply.

Key words：the three-pillar pension system;pension contribution rates;size of labor supply;structure of labor supply;dynamic general equilibrium