《保险研究》20230602-《极端气候与商业银行风险承担：基于中国152家区域性商业银行实证研究》（夏益国、张一鸣、刘丽萍）

［摘   要］本文选取2012~2020年中国152家区域性商业银行样本数据，利用中国456个气象站点的逐日气象数据，从强度和频度两个维度计算极端气候指数，实证检验极端气候对商业银行风险承担水平影响效果、异质性及影响机理。研究结果表明：（1）极端高温和极端强降水气候的强度对商业银行风险承担水平均无显著影响，但极端高温和极端强降水气候的频度对商业银行风险承担水平存在显著影响 。（2）极端低温气候的强度和频度均显著提升商业银行风险承担水平。（3）农村商业银行比城市商业银行更易受极端气候影响，且不同地区所受影响具有异质性。（4）影响机制检验结果显示，极端气候提高商业银行风险承担水平主要是通过降低家庭财富、提高其资产风险的“个人”渠道，影响公司经营提高其总体违约风险的“企业”渠道，以及通过气候政策而导致银行业务结构改变的“政府”渠道达成的。

［关键词］极端气候；区域性商业银行；风险承担；异质性

［基金项目］本文获2023年度安徽省高等学校哲学社会科学重点研究项目“极端气候与保险保障对商业银行风险承担影响研究”和国家社会科学基金项目“区域一体化视域下生产性服务业集聚与创新经济协同发展研究”（21BJY149）的资助。

［作者简介］夏益国，安徽工业大学商学院金融与统计系，教授，硕士生导师；张一鸣，安徽工业大学商学院硕士研究生；刘丽萍，安徽工业大学商学院金融与统计系，副教授，硕士生导师。

Extreme Climate and Commercial Banks Risk-taking:An Empirical Study on 152 Regional Commercial Banks in China

XIA Yi-guo,ZHANG Yi-ming,LIU Li-ping

Abstract：This paper selects the sample data of 152 regional commercial banks in China from 2012 to 2020,uses the daily meteorological data of 456 meteorological stations in China,calculates the extreme climate index from the two dimensions of intensity and frequency,and empirically tests extreme climate′s impacts on the risk-taking level of commercial banks,including the impact effects,heterogeneity,and impact mechanisms.The research results show that:(1) the intensity of extreme high temperature and extreme precipitation has no significant impact on the risk-taking level of commercial banks,but the frequency of extreme high temperature and extreme precipitation has a significant impact on the risk-taking level of commercial banks;(2) the intensity and frequency of extreme low temperature weather have significantly increased the risk-taking level of commercial banks;(3) rural commercial banks are more susceptible to extreme climate impacts than urban commercial banks,and the impacts in different regions are heterogeneous;(4)the results of the impact mechanism test show that extreme weather increases the risk-taking level of commercial banks mainly through the "individual" channel that reduces household wealth and increases their asset risk,the "enterprise" channel that affects the company′s operation and increases its overall default risk and the "government" channels that leads to business structural changes though climate-related policies.

Key words：extreme climate;regional commercial bank;risk taking;heterogeneity