《保险研究》20230603-《年龄、风险判断偏差与投保规律》（郭振华、李亚宁）

［摘   要］传统投保决策理论建立在消费者能够准确评估风险的假设之上，但是大量相关研究表明，人们通常无法准确评估风险。本文在郭振华（2020）提出的风险判断偏差规律研究方法的基础上，放松风险记忆存量均为过去6年的假设，研究具有不同风险记忆存量的不同年龄人群的风险判断偏差规律，进而研究年龄如何通过风险判断偏差影响投保决策，揭示了不同年龄人群的投保规律。本文的主要结论是：第一，对年轻群体而言，由于低估风险者占比大，高估风险者占比小，低估风险人群的低估倍数很大，高估风险人群的高估程度较大，导致大部分年轻人会因严重低估风险而放弃购买保险。第二，随着年龄增加，人们的风险阅历不断增加，低估风险者占比会逐渐减少，高估风险者占比会逐渐增加，低估人群的低估倍数和高估人群的高估倍数都呈下降趋势，人们的风险判断偏差逐渐减弱，由此导致，随着年龄增加，在高估风险者占比增加的驱动下，愿意购买保险和选择足额保险的人越来越多，人们的投保决策越来越理性。

［关键词］年龄；主观概率；风险判断偏差；投保规律

［作者简介］郭振华，上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院教授、保险系主任；李亚宁，上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院保险系硕士研究生。

Age,Risk Judgment Bias and Insurance Application Rules

GUO Zhen-hua,LI Ya-ning

Abstract：Traditional insurance decision theory is based on the assumption that consumers can accurately assess risk,but a large number of related studies have shown that people usually cannot accurately assess risk.In this paper,based on the research method of risk judgment bias law proposed by Guo Zhenhua (2020),we relax the assumption that the risk memory stock is all for the past 6 years,and study the risk judgment bias law of different age groups with different risk memory stocks.Then we study how age affects the insurance decision through risk judgment bias,and reveal the insurance application law of different age groups.The main conclusions of this paper are:firstly,for the young group,due to the large proportion of risk underestimators and a small proportion of risk overestimators,and the large underestimation multiple of the risk underestimators and the large degree of overestimation of the risk overestimators,most young people will give up buying insurance due to severe risk underestimation;secondly,with the increase of age,people′s risk experience continues to increase,the proportion of risk underestimators will gradually decrease,the proportion of risk overestimators will gradually increase,and the underestimation multiple of underestimators and the overestimation multiple of overestimators show a downward trend,as a result,people′s risk judgment bias gradually weakens.To sum up,as age increases,driven by the increase in the proportion of risk overestimators,more people are willing to not only buy insurance but buy insurance in full,and people′s insurance decisions turn more rational.

Key words：age;subjective probability;risk judgment bias;insurance application rules