《保险研究》20230503-《政府收支的收入分配效应：基于跨国数据的分析》（万广华、杨晨、胡晓珊）

［摘   要］基于210个国家和地区1980~2019年的面板数据，本文估算了政府收入和支出，尤其是社会保障收入和支出，对收入不均等的影响及其异质性。基准和IV实证结果表明，政府收入和支出皆有助于收入分配的改善，前者的影响主要来自税收与社会保障缴费收入，而后者的影响主要来自补助金与社会保障支出或社保发放。异质性分析显示，政府收支的贫富差距效应与经济发展水平和市场化程度（以经济自由度代表）正相关。据此可以推断，随着中国进一步增加社会保障的收入和支出，在其他条件不变的情况下，中国的不均等将有所下降。此外，新发展格局下，中国进一步推进市场化改革不但能够促进经济增长，而且有助于改善收入分配，是鱼与熊掌兼得的重要举措。

［关键词］收入不均等；政府收入；政府支出；税收社保

［基金项目］感谢国家自然科学基金重点项目（71833003）的资助。

［作者简介］万广华，复旦大学世界经济研究所教授，经济学博士，研究方向：发展经济学、世界经济；杨晨，复旦大学世界经济研究所博士研究生，研究方向:发展经济学、世界经济；胡晓珊（通信作者），上海电机学院商学院讲师，研究方向：发展经济学、世界经济。

Income Distribution Effects of Government Revenues and Expenditures:An Analysis Based on Cross-Country Data

WAN Guang-hua,YANG Chen,HU Xiao-shan

Abstract：Based on panel data of 210 countries and regions over 1980-2019,this paper estimates the effects of government revenues and expenditures,particularly social security revenues and expenditures,on income inequality and their heterogeneity.The baseline and instrumental variable(IV) empirical results show that both government revenues and expenditures contribute to the improvement of income distribution,with the former′s impact coming mainly from tax and social security revenues,while the latter′s impact comes mainly from grants and social security expenditures or social security payments.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the wealth gap effect of government revenues and expenditures is positively related to the level of economic development and the degree of marketization (captured by economic freedom).This suggests that inequality in China will decline as the country further increases its revenues and expenditures on social security,with all other conditions unchanged.Moreover,within the framework of the new development paradigm,China′s ongoing market-oriented reforms are expected to kill two birds with one stone by boosting economic growth and facilitating improvements in income distribution.

Key words：income inequality;government revenue;government expenditure;taxation,social security