《保险研究》20230407-《养老保险缴费的拉弗曲线：政策缴费率对实际缴费率的影响》（路锦非、李姝）

［摘   要］2016年开始，我国进行了一系列减税降费政策，目前企业职工基本养老保险单位政策缴费率降至16%。本文运用2002~2018年企业职工基本养老保险缴费的省级面板数据，采用双向固定效应模型分析政策缴费率对实际缴费率产生的影响。研究得出以下结论：首先，养老保险缴费存在拉弗曲线，政策缴费率与实际缴费率之间存在“倒U”型关系，拐点处的政策缴费率水平为25.96%；其次，系统老龄化程度较高的地区,政策缴费率变化带来的实际缴费率变动更明显，第三产业占比低及人口迁出地的政策缴费率与实际缴费率之间也存在明显的“倒U”型关系；第三，精算模型测算显示，养老保险政策缴费率由28%降至24%时，企业的缴费负担下降16134.16亿元，下降幅度为6.49%。据此，建议建立有效的养老保险缴费监督和激励机制，特别是加强经济欠发达地区的养老保险征缴监管。

［关键词］养老保险；拉弗曲线；缴费率

［基金项目］国家自然科学基金一般项目“推进养老金全国统筹的参与方行为激励与权益保障机制研究”（72174064）；教育部人文社科规划基金项目“权益流动机制：职工基本养老保险全国统筹的实现路径研究”（19YJA630050）；国家智能社会治理实验基地（养老）（华东师范大学经济与管理学部公共管理学院和上海市长宁区民政局联合共建）。

［作者简介］路锦非，华东师范大学公共管理学院教授、博导，研究方向：社会保障与社会政策；李姝，华东师范大学公共管理学院博士研究生，研究方向：社会保障。

Laffer Curve of Pension Insurance Payment:Effects of Policy Contribution Rate on Actual Contribution Rate

LU Jin-fei,LI Shu

Abstract：Since 2016,China has carried out a series of tax cut and fee reduction policies.At present,the policy contribution rate of the basic pension schemes for employees has dropped to 16%. This paper applies the fixed effect model to provincial panel data of contributions to the basic pension schemes for employees from 2002 to 2018 to analyze the impact of the policy contribution rate have on the actual  contribution rate,and to draws the following conclusions:first,there is a Laffer curve in the pension insurance contributions,and there is an "inverted U" relationship between the policy contribution rate and the actual contribution rate,with the policy contribution rate at the inflection point being 25.96%;second,in areas with a high degree of aging of the system,the change of the actual contribution rate caused by the change of the policy contribution rate is more obvious,and there is also an "inverted U-shaped" relationship between the policy contribution rate and the actual contribution rate in areas with a low proportion of the tertiary industry and in areas where people move out;third,the actuarial model calculation shows that when the policy contribution rate of pension insurance is reduced from 28% to 24%,the contribution burden of enterprises will decrease by 16134.16 billion yuan,a decrease of 6.49%.Therefore,it is suggested to establish an effective supervision and incentive mechanism for pension insurance payment,especially to strengthen the supervision in underdeveloped areas.

Key words：pension insurance;Laffer curve;contribution rate