《保险研究》20230305-《中国长期护理保险需求规模预测和保障路径研究——基于第七次人口普查数据的测算》（刘方涛、费清）

［摘   要］随着我国老龄化程度加深,老年失能人口数量也持续攀升,加之家庭规模小型化趋势,个人和家庭长期护理支出风险和成本不断增加,已逐渐成为一项重要的社会问题。本文结合试点地区长期护理政策内容,利用第七次人口普查数据,通过队列要素法测算2020～2050年中国人口结构区间,并在老年失能人口规模和失能占比测算的基础上,分别从职工和居民两类群体入手,测算2020～2050年长期护理支出与筹资规模,提出相应的解决路径。测算结果显示,2050年我国60岁以上老年失能总人数约9800万人,其中重度失能人数在1720万人；若考虑在中等支付标准下保障重度失能人口,2030年长期护理保险支付规模为2241.34亿元,2050年将达到6181.20亿元。为应对长期护理保障压力,建议在总结长期护理保险试点经验的基础上,加快从国家层面推动社会长期护理保险制度建设,对职工和居民群体分类采取有针对性的措施,同时积极鼓励发展商业长期护理保险。

［关键词］长期护理保险；人口预测；老年失能；支付标准

［基金项目］国家卫生健康委卫生发展研究中心委托课题“‘十四五’时期我国医养结合筹资政策研究”。

［作者简介］刘方涛（香港城市大学统计学博士），泰康养老保险股份有限公司战略企划部副总经理。费清（南开大学经济学博士），泰康养老保险股份有限公司战略企划部战略研究专家。

A Research on the Scale of Long-term Care Insurance Demand and the Security Path in China—Based on the Data of the Seventh Population Census

LIU Fang-tao,FEI Qing

Abstract：With the growing population aging in China,the number of elderly disabled people also continues to rise.This trend,coupled with smaller family size,leads to increasing personal and family risks and costs in relation to long-term care(LTC)expenditure,which has gradually become an important social issue.Taking into consideration the LTC policy content in the pilot area,this paper uses the seventh census data to calculate the population structure range of China from 2020 to 2050 through the cohort element method.Then,on the basis of the calculation of the elderly disabled population size and the proportion of the disabled,it calculates the reasonable LTC expenditure and financing scale from 2020 to 2050 from the perspective of workers and residents,and puts forward the corresponding solutions.The calculation results show that in 2050,there will be about 98 million disabled people over 60 years old in China,including 17.2 million severely disabled people.Based on the scale of the severely disabled population,under the medium payment standard,the payment scale of the LTC insurance will be 224.134 billion yuan in 2030 and 618.12 billion yuan in 2050.In order to cope with the pressure of the LTC security,it is suggested to accelerate the construction of the social LTC insurance system at the national level on the basis of summing up the LTC pilot experience,take targeted measures for the classification of workers and residents,and actively encourage the development of commercial LTC insurance.

Key words：long-term care insurance;population forecast;elderly disability;payment standard