《保险研究》20230206-《三支柱养老保险体系综合替代率、合意替代率与替代率适度水平区间》（薛惠元、胡浩然、栾一晴）

［摘   要］本文通过对城镇居民基本生活需求的理论界定,得出满足城镇退休人员基本生活需要的养老金合意替代率下限为43.7%，并参考学界对合意替代率上限设定的建议，将三支柱养老保险体系养老金合意替代率水平区间确定［43.7%，70%］。通过构建精算模型，分别测算出乐观情形和悲观情形下，参加三支柱养老保险体系不同组合时的养老金综合替代率，将其与合意替代率进行比较，进而找出三支柱体系下养老金替代率的适度水平区间。研究发现：低收入人群参加第一支柱可以满足其基本生活需要，但缴费必须达到一定年限，中高收入人群还需拓展第二、三支柱作为补充；参加第二、三支柱能显著提升养老金的综合替代率水平，且参加第二支柱比参加第三支柱对第一支柱的补充作用更大；多支柱养老保险体系下的养老金替代率适度水平区间随着缴费年限的增加而逐渐扩大，最后保持在［43.7%，70%］水平不变。以乐观情形下，退休年龄为60岁、个人缴费工资基数始终等于上年度全口径平均工资的“标准人”参加第一、二、三支柱为例，缴费年限在15~19年时无适度区间,缴费年限在20~25年时替代率适度区间从［43.7%，46.9%］扩大到［43.7%，68.6%］，缴费年限超过26年，替代率适度区间始终保持在［43.7%，70%］的水平。基于此,本文提出延迟退休年龄、提高最低缴费年限、降低养老保险费率、多措并举提升养老保险基金收入、加强基金的投资运营以及加大第二、三支柱的发展等相关建议。

［关键词］三支柱养老保险；目标替代率；合意替代率

［基金项目］中国保险学会2022年度研究课题“三支柱养老保险体系中养老金替代率的适度水平研究”（批准号:ISCKT2022-N-1-01）。

［作者简介］薛惠元，武汉大学社会保障研究中心副主任，武汉大学政治与公共管理学院副教授、硕士生导师，研究方向:社会保险精算；胡浩然，武汉大学社会保障研究中心硕士研究生，研究方向:社会保障理论与政策；栾一晴（通讯作者），武汉大学社会保障研究中心硕士研究生，研究方向:社会保障理论与政策。

Comprehensive Replacement Rate,Desirable Replacement Rate and the Appropriate Range of Replacement Rate of the Three-Pillar Pension Insurance System

XUE Hui-yuan,HU Hao-ran,LUAN Yi-qing

Abstract：Based on the theoretical definition of the basic living needs of urban residents,it is concluded that the lower limit of the desirable pension replacement rate to meet the basic living needs of urban retirees is 43.7%.With reference to the suggestions of the academic community on the upper limit of the desirable replacement rate,the range of the desirable pension replacement rate of the three-pillar pension insurance system is determined at ［43.7%,70%］.By constructing an actuarial model,we can calculate the comprehensive replacement rate of different combinations of the three-pillar pension insurance system under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios,and compare it with the desirable replacement rate,and then find out the appropriate range of the replacement rate under the three-pillar system.The study reaches the following findings.Low-income people can meet their basic living needs by participating in the first pillar,but they must make contributions for a certain number of years;for the middle and high-income people,they must use the second and third pillars as a supplement.Participation in the second and third pillars can significantly improve the comprehensive replacement rate,and participation in the second pillar is more important than participation in the third pillar to supplement the first pillar.The desirable range of pension replacement rate under the multi-pillar pension insurance system will gradually expand with the increase of contribution years,and will remain unchanged at the level of ［43.7%,70%］ ultimately.In an optimistic example,the "standard person",with the retirement age of 60 years old and the wage base of individual contribution always equal to the average wage of the previous year,participates in the first,second and third pillars.When the contribution period is 15-19 years,there is no appropriate range.When the contribution period is 20-25 years,the appropriate range is expanded from ［43.7%,46.9%］ to ［43.7%,68.6%］.The range will stay between ［43.7%,70%］ when the contribution period is longer than 26 years.Based on the above findings,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions such as delaying the retirement age,increasing the minimum contribution period,reducing pension insurance premiums,taking multiple measures to increase the pension fund′s income,strengthening the investment and operation of the fund,and promoting the development of the second and third pillars.

Key words：three-pillar pension insurance system;target replacement rate;desirable replacement rate