《保险研究》20210904-《农业保险的环境效应及影响机制——从中国化肥面源污染视角的考察》（马九杰、杨晨、崔恒瑜、王雪）

［摘   要］本文以化肥面源污染为例,探究了农业保险的环境效应。首先构造了农业保险对化肥面源污染影响的“规模-结构-技术”的分析框架；其次,基于2001-2018年31个省(直辖市、自治区)的面板数据,计算出氮污染、磷污染和等标污染等化肥面源污染的排放强度数据,使用双向固定效应模型和中介效应模型分别对农险的环境效应及影响机制进行实证分析。研究表明:农业保险发展有助于减少化肥面源污染的排放强度,即农业保险具有环境保护效应；农业保险对化肥面源污染强度的削减作用存在地区异质性,虽然东部和中西部地区都显著存在,但东部更为显著；农业保险发展有助于农业规模化经营和农作物结构调整,进而减轻化肥面源污染强度；农业保险发展虽然能够推动农业技术进步,但对环境保护没有体现出明显中介效应；量化分解结果显示规模化经营和作物结构调整对总体环境影响效应的贡献不同,其中,规模化经营效应占总效应的19.85%~20.20%,结构效应占10.49%~17.77%。据此认为,应将农业保险作为促进农业绿色转型的重要政策工具,继续大力推广农业保险,特别是加快针对粮食主产区、适度规模经营农户的高保障型农业保险试点、推广,同时开发与绿色、环境友好型农业技术挂钩的绿色农业保险产品。

［关键词］农业保险；面源污染；环境保护；中介效应

［基金项目］本文受到国家自然科学基金项目“数字金融发展在农村金融空间配给缓解和实体经济金融普惠中的作用研究”(项目号:71973146)、国家社科基金重大项目“乡村振兴背景下数字乡村发展的理论、实践与政策研究”(项目号:20＆ZD164)的资助。

［作者简介］马九杰,中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院教授,研究方向:农村金融、发展经济学；杨晨(通讯作者),中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院博士研究生,研究方向:政策性金融、农村金融；崔恒瑜,中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院博士研究生,研究方向:政策性金融、农业保险；王雪,中国农业银行博士后科研工作站,研究方向:农村金融、发展经济学。

The Environmental Effect and Formation Mechanisms of the Promotion of Agricultural Insurance—From the Perspective of Non-Point Source Pollution of Chemical Fertilizers in China

MA Jiu-jie,YANG Chen,CUI Heng-yu,WANG Xue

Abstract：Taking non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizer as an example,this paper explored the environmental protection effect of agricultural insurance.It first constructed an analytical framework of “scale-structure-technology” for the impact of agricultural insurance on non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizer,Then,based on the panel data of 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) from 2001 to 2018,this paper calculated the emission data of non-point source pollution intensity of chemical fertilizers,such as nitrogen pollution,phosphorus pollution and equal standard pollution,and made an empirical analysis by using the two-way fixed effect model and the mediation effect model.The results show that:the development of agricultural insurance helps to reduce the emission intensity of non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizers,that is,agricultural insurance has the effect of environmental protection.agricultural insurance has a significant effect on reducing the emission intensity of non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizers in the eastern,central and western regions,but it is more significant in the eastern region,showing the effects’ regional heterogeneity.the development of agricultural insurance is conducive to the expansion of agricultural operation scale and the adjustment of crop structure,which reduces the non-point source pollution intensity of chemical fertilizer;while the development of agricultural insurance can promote the progress of agricultural technology,there is no significant mediating effect on environmental protection.scale operation and crop restructuring have different environmental effects on the whole,namely,the scale effect accounts for 19.85%-20.20%,and the restructuring effect accounts for 10.49%-17.77%.Therefore,agricultural insurance should be regarded as an important policy tool for green transformation of agriculture,and we should continue to vigorously promote agricultural insurance,especially the pilots of high-protection agricultural insurance in major grain zones and among farmers with certain levels of scale operation.At the same time,we should develop green agricultural insurance products linked with green,environmental friendly agricultural technologies.

Key words：agricultural insurance;non-point source pollution;environment protection;mediating effect