《保险研究》20210905-《新冠肺炎疫情对企业投保出口信用险的影响研究——来自出口信用保险数据的分析》（胡赛、蒋韶华）

［摘   要］新冠肺炎疫情全球蔓延给各国经济造成剧烈冲击,也给我国企业出口带来很大挑战。为了准确研判疫情冲击对我国出口的影响,本文构建了包含贸易政策不确定性的异质企业模型,分析政策变化对企业出口的影响,以及出口信用保险在稳定出口过程中发挥的作用。研究发现:国外政策不确定性增强使得企业对出口信用保险的需求增加,并扩大了企业出口实际的损失；仅采取封锁隔离政策时,企业对出口信用保险的需求增大,而损失比重下降；仅采取经济刺激政策时,能有效缓解不确定性,促进出口增长但可能会降低出口信用保险覆盖面,损失比重增加；综合考虑封锁隔离措施和经济刺激政策的影响,疫情冲击所导致的政策不确定性并未得到有效缓解,企业对出口信用保险的需求依然增加,但能使损失比重维持在正常水平。研究结论为我国出口贸易在疫情冲击下实现高质量发展、充分发挥出口信用保险稳定外贸基本盘的作用提供有价值的政策参考依据。

［关键词］新冠肺炎疫情；出口信用保险；政策不确定性；差分模型

［基金项目］国家社会科学基金青年项目“促进出口贸易高质量发展的微观机制研究”(18CGJ001)。

［作者简介］胡赛(通讯作者),中共浙江省委党校、经济学教研部,浙江大学经济学博士,美国密苏里大学哥伦比亚校区访问学者；蒋韶华,中国人民大学商学院企业管理博士研究生,中国出口信用保险公司客户市场部总经理助理。

A Study on the Impact of COVID-19 on Enterprises’ Application for Export Credit Insurance—An Analysis Based on Export Credit Insurance Data

HU Sai,JIANG Shao-hua

Abstract：The global spread of COVID-19 has caused a severe impact on the economies of various countries,and also brought great challenges to the exports of Chinese enterprises.In order to accurately determine the impacts of the pandemic on China′s exports,this paper constructed a heterogeneous enterprise model including trade policy uncertainty,analyzed the impacts of policy changes on enterprises′ exports,and the role of export credit insurance in stabilizing exports.The results show that:(1) The growing uncertainty of foreign policies increases the demands of enterprises for export credit insurance and expands the actual export losses of enterprises.(2) The demand of enterprises for export credit insurance will increase if only adopting the lockdown and quarantine policy,and the proportion of losses will decrease.The uncertainty will be alleviated,exports will increase,but the coverage of export credit insurance may shrink,and the proportion of losses will increase if only adopting the economic stimulus policy.(3) Considering the joint impacts of the quarantine measures and economic stimulus policies,it is found that the policy uncertainty caused by the pandemic has not been effectively alleviated,and the demands of enterprises for export credit insurance is still increasing,but the proportion of losses can be maintained at a normal level.The research conclusion provides valuable policy reference for China′s export trade to achieve high-quality development under the impact of the pandemic,and give full play to the role of export credit insurance in stabilizing foreign trade.

Key words：COVID-19;export credit insurance;policy uncertainty;Difference Model