《保险研究》20210906-《基于裁判文书披露的消费贷保证保险实证研究》（许荣、黄彧、张俊岩、刘灿阳）

［摘   要］健康的消费金融生态构建需要专业信用中介特别是消费贷保证保险帮助金融机构管控贷款逾期风险并提升居民融资效率。然而消费贷保证保险能否发挥预期风险管理的金融功能,还是反而因为产品费率高而造成消费者负担过重,是当前政策制订和消费金融实务共同关注的课题。本文抽样整理了2011~2019年期间350份裁判文书网关于消费贷保证保险纠纷的判决文书,统计发现我国消费贷市场的综合贷款利率平均为26.39%,其中保证保险年化费率均值为17.86%。通过截断回归方法实证发现,消费贷保证保险在一定程度上确实可以促进消费者还款,具备一定风险管理功能；但综合借贷利率与还款比例间存在显著倒U型关系,表明我国消费贷市场借款成本偏高。本文从保险公司与监管两个层面出发,为处理我国消费贷保证保险市场的现存问题提出建议。

［关键词］个人消费贷款；保证保险；违约风险；贷款综合利率

［基金项目］中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(18XNI006)。

［作者简介］许荣,中国人民大学财政金融学院、中国财政金融政策研究中心、中国人民大学保险研究所,教授、博士生导师；黄彧,中国人民大学财政金融学院硕士研究生；张俊岩(通讯作者),中国人民大学财政金融学院副教授；刘灿阳,中国人民大学财政金融学院博士生。

A Help or a Harm?An Empirical Study on Consumer Loan Guarantee Insurance Based on Judgment Documents

XU Rong,HUANG Yu,ZHANG Jun-yan,LIU Can-yang

Abstract：A healthy consumer financing ecosystem requires professional credit intermediaries,especially consumer loan guarantee insurance,to help financial institutions control the risk of overdue loans and improve the efficiency of the lending market.However,whether the consumer loan guarantee insurance can play its financial role of managing expected risks,or pose a burden on consumers due to its high premium rate,has become the common focus of policy-makers and consumer financing practitioners.This paper sampled 350 judgment documents on consumer loan guarantee insurance disputes from the Judgment Document Network of China,and found that during the period of 2011-2019,the average comprehensive loan interest rate in China′s consumer loan market was 26.39% and the average annualized premium rate of guarantee insurance was 17.86%.Then,through truncated regression,this paper found that consumer loan guarantee insurance did promote consumer repayment to a certain extent,there played certain risk management function.But there was a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between the comprehensive loan interest rate and the repayment ratio,illustrating empirically the high cost of borrowing in China′s consumer loan market.Finally,this paper made suggestions for dealing with the existing problems in China′s consumer loan guarantee insurance market from both the insurer and regulatory perspectives.

Key words：consumer loan;guarantee insurance;default risk;comprehensive loan interest rate