《保险研究》20210701-《货币超发、粮食金融化与粮食进口国粮食安全风险》（王东、王远卓）

［摘   要］近期全球粮价大涨,引发人们对粮食安全的关注。粮食安全不仅事关人民生计,也会引发经济政治社会问题。从理论角度看,货币超发—粮食金融化—进口国粮食安全风险是货币放水背景下引发粮食安全问题的传导路径。粮食安全风险向经济层面传导,引发输入型通货膨胀,带动相关生产要素成本和生活消费品价格上涨,形成通货膨胀和本币汇率贬值的恶性循环,造成跨境资本外流和外汇储备下降。2020年新冠肺炎疫情对全球经济造成巨大冲击,美联储开启无限量化宽松计划,引发粮价的上涨；叠加蝗灾和疫情影响,全球粮食减产概率很大,供给缺口叠加货币超发引发的粮价上涨,未来全球的粮食安全风险不可小觑。当前要重视经济结构单一、社会脆弱度高的粮食进口国未来发生粮食安全风险的可能性,特别要高度关注巴西、厄瓜多尔等13个粮食进口国的粮食安全问题。开展对外贸易和直接投资的中方企业,应当高度关注东道主国粮食安全风险,积极寻求商业保险和政策性保险。中国作为世界最大的粮食进口国,也应当高度重视自身的粮食安全风险。

［关键词］货币超发；粮食金融化；粮食安全风险

［基金项目］国家社科基金青年项目“金融市场发展、跨境资本流动与国家金融安全研究”(项目号:18CJL037)。

［作者简介］王东,中国出口信用保险公司国别风险研究中心,管理学博士,研究方向:宏观经济；王远卓(通讯作者),中国出口信用保险公司国别风险研究中心,金融学博士,研究方向:宏观经济与货币政策。

Currency Over-Issuance,Grain Financialization and Grain Security Risk in Grain Importing Countries

WANG Dong,WANG Yuan-zhuo

Abstract：The recent surge in global food prices has brought attention to the issue of food security.Food security not only concerns people′s livelihood,but may also cause political and social problems in a country.From a theoretical point of view,money over-issuance-food financialization-food security risk is the transmission path of food security problem under the background of monetary easing.Food security risks are transmitted to the economy,triggering imported inflation and driving up the costs of relevant production factors and the prices of consumer goods.At the same time,a vicious cycle of inflation and currency depreciation is formed,resulting in cross-border capital outflow and a decline in foreign exchange reserves.The COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 had a huge impact on the global economy.The Federal Reserve of the United States started an unlimited quantitative easing program,leading to the rise of food prices.Due to the epidemic,coupled with the impact of locust plague,the probability of global grain production decline is very high,and the supply gap combined with the currency oversupply leads to the rise of grain prices.The global food security problem cannot be underestimated in the future.At present,attention should be paid to the possibility of future food crises in food-importing countries with single economic structure and high social fragility.In particular,we should pay close attention to the food security risk in 13 food-importing countries,including Brazil,Ecuador.Chinese enterprises engaged in foreign trade and direct investment should pay close attention to food security risks in host countries and actively seek commercial and policy-based insurance.As the world′s largest food importer,China should also attach great importance to its own food security risks.

Key words：currency over-issuance;food financialization;food security risk